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When Will Google Have Its First Crisis?

Background: The rise and rise of Google over the past 10 years has been breathtaking. From its early days of being just a really good search (remember when that was 'just another feature'?) to the technology and media behemoth it is today, the company has confounded skepticism that it could keeping growing.

Today, its core ad words product shows no signs of slowing. However, threats do exist, not least from Microsoft swallowing Yahoo or from Google's management losing touch with its own employees and customers.

Many of today's most successful companies like Apple, News Corp or Intel went through crises but then emerged stronger. The question is when is Google's or is it immortal?

Settlement details:A crisis will be defined as the stock halving from its previous lifetime high (currently $747) AND either the WSJ or the NYT describing the company or management in "crisis" or words to that effect.

 
Forecast history %
2008
5%
2009
14%
2010
19%
2011
14%
2012+
48%
Question suspends in 2 years

Suspend date: Sat 31st Dec 2011 11:59pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: 2008: 1%, 2009: 10%, 2010: 20%, 2011: 20%, 2012+: 49%

Action history:

Created Wed 9th Jul 2008 8:22am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]

Suspend date: Sat 31st Dec 2011 11:59pm PST (2 years to go) details

 

Predictions (32)

19 weeks ago
neopugg predicted 2010 (H$10 at 19%)
20 weeks ago
alphacomputing predicted 2012+ (H$100 at 47%)
33 weeks ago
uberjoe predicted 2010 (H$50 at 18%)
37 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted 2009 (H$500 at 20%)
49 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted 2009 (H$500 at 20%)

Comments (3)

Do the two components of the settlement details have to occur simultaneously? For example, Google is already (Oct. '08) at less than half its previous lifetime high. What happens if it goes back above this, but then the WSJ or NYT describes Google as being in crisis?
posted 1 year ago
  3 rogerkni
"What could go wrong with Google?":
http://seekingalpha.com/article/128077-what-could-go-wrong-with-google
posted 34 weeks ago

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