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Will Atlanta Courthouse Killer Brian Nichols be Convicted of Murder?

Current forecast: Convicted of Murder with Death Penalty Sentence (62% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Convicted of Murder with Death Penalty Sentence with a probability of 62% (unchanged in last 1 day)

"The courthouse killings case against Brian Nichols was supposed to be as open-and-shut as they come.

"There were hordes of witnesses, hours of surveillance video and his lengthy statement to investigators after his arrest, when police say he confessed to a rampage that left four people dead.

"Even Nichols' defense team has conceded Nichols killed a judge, court reporter, sheriff's deputy and federal agent on March 11, 2005, in a spree that began at the county courthouse in downtown Atlanta. He has pleaded not guilty, and his attorneys plan to argue he was the victim of a "delusional compulsion" during the killings.

"Both sides must contend with a case that has wound through more twists than an airport thriller: A state-funded defense bill of at least $1.8 million, outraged lawmakers, an alleged escape plot, allegations that a prosecutor committed crimes of her own and the district attorney suing the presiding judge, who later stepped down.

"Judge Hilton Fuller suspended the trial indefinitely in October 2007 because the state public defender's office cut off funding to Nichols' attorneys amid a budget crunch.

"Then the trial suddenly lost its leader: Fuller was forced to step down in January after he was quoted in The New Yorker magazine as saying of Nichols, "everyone in the world knows he did it."

"New judge James Bodiford has tried to keep the case on track. He has had to handle defense attorneys' attempts to challenge the credibility of a former prosecutor, Gayle Abramson, who tried Nichols for rape.

"They claim Abramson was involved in criminal activity while she prosecuted Nichols, and are questioning the integrity of the underlying rape prosecution.

"Once trial begins, it's likely to last months. As many as 600 witnesses could be called."

Will Brian Nichols be convicted of murder?

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See Settlement Details for definitions!
 
Forecast history, %
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Convicted of Murder with Death Penalty Sentence
62%
Convicted of Murder - No Death Penalty (Sane)
12%
Not Guilty (Insanity/"Delusional Compulsion")
16%
Mis-trial
6%
Any Other Outcome
4%
Activity: H$5,592
Question suspends in 13 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: [Market compiled from AP Reports.]

Any verdict incorporating any mention of any variant of "insanity" shall settle as "Not Guilty (Insanity/"Delusional Compulsion")" The defendant need not be "set free" as the result of such a verdict -- and he may be sentenced to incarceration with such a verdict.

Mis-trial" shall include a "hung jury" or any other reason for a mistrial to be declared.

Any announced/intended/automatic appeal shall not affect the settlement of this market.

The suspend date may be extended, if necessary, for the duration of the trial.

This market may be manually suspended once the jury has begun deliberations, and settlement shall be made after a verdict has been announced, or a mistrial declared.

As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Fri 12th Dec 5:59am PST (13 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Convicted of Murder with Death Penalty Sentence: 55%, Convicted of Murder - No Death Penalty (Sane): 5%, Not Guilty (Insanity/"Delusional Compulsion"): 25%, Mis-trial : 10%, Any Other Outcome: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 9th Jul 11:08am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]
Clarified Tue 15th Jul 2:04am PDT by tisha[Admin]: Editing made as per creator's suggestions in flag
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: [Market compiled from AP Reports.] ... read all

 

Predictions (31)

31 predictions

1 week ago
jsevigny predicted Convicted of Murder with Death Penalty Sentence (H$20 at 62%)
1 week ago
mrperfkt[Admin] predicted Convicted of Murder with Death Penalty Sentence (H$750 at 59%)
2 weeks ago
lizzielizzie predicted Convicted of Murder with Death Penalty Sentence (H$20 at 56%)
3 weeks ago
myra2901 predicted Not Guilty (Insanity/"Delusional Compulsion") (H$20 at 18%)
7 weeks ago
hoosierdaddy predicted Convicted of Murder with Death Penalty Sentence (H$50 at 62%)
more

Comments (4)

  1 chatarra
Even though 4 innocent people died, I am betting on a life sentence, because the deaths were not premeditated. He did not start out the day with the intention of killing 4 specific individuals, but rather they were in the way of his bid at unjustified freedom.

If I were Judge, Jury and Executioner, then his days alive would have already passed, but this is a case for the U. S. court system, which offers too many attempts at judicial fairness.
posted 8 weeks ago
Is mistrial (Hung Jury) only for a hung jury, or for any mistrial (such as improper instructions to the jury, or juror statements to the press)?
posted 7 weeks ago
@ AnAverageAmerican -- excellent point! "mistrial" ought cover all flavors of mistrials.
I'll flag this to have that clarified. Thanks!
posted 7 weeks ago
  4 frank2877
He gets the death sentence. He killed a Law Enforcement Officer in Georgia.
posted 7 weeks ago

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