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What will be the 10s digit of the NASDAQ at close on July 10, 2008?

Settled as 5

2,257.85

Background:

Newcomers - that is the $10 position.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Zer0
1%
1
1%
2
2%
3
5%
4
66%
5
21%
6
2%
7
2%
8
1%
9
1%
Activity: H$18,520
Settled as 5 on Thu 10th Jul 2:24pm PDT

Suspend date: Thu 10th Jul 12:55pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 10th Jul 2:24pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 10th Jul 12:55pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Zer0: 10%, 1: 10%, 2: 15%, 3: 15%, 4: 15%, 5: 10%, 6: 10%, 7: 5%, 8: 5%, 9: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 9th Jul 2:52pm PDT by gregmatta
Suspended Thu 10th Jul 12:55pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as '5' Thu 10th Jul 2:24pm PDT by robuk[Admin]: 2,257.85

Suspend date: Thu 10th Jul 12:55pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 10th Jul 2:24pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 10th Jul 12:55pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (238)

238 predictions

20 weeks ago
rightorwrong predicted 5 (H$300 at 18%)
20 weeks ago
kennyk predicted 5 (H$100 at 16%)

Comments (2)

  1 swilson
Why would 4 and 5 be so lopsidedly high? 23% to the rest of the market's numbers around 6-8%. That strikes me as statistically impossible given this market asks a question settled completely randomly. hmmm???
posted 20 weeks ago
Neither the DOW nor the NASDAQ digit questions are "random" although the DOW question is pretty hard to predict before about 30 minutes prior to close. The NASDAQ digit question, however, is much more similar to http://www.hubdub.com/m10895/Where_will_the_DJIA_close_on_Thursday_July_10_2008 than its similarly named DOW digit question though because of the lower volume. (Around 12,000 for the DOW vs about 2,000 for NASDAQ). So like the above "Where will DJIA close" question, you can be reasonable certain what the NASDAQ digit will be much earlier in the day.

Hope that makes some sense.
posted 20 weeks ago

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