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Who will win Alabama in the 2008 Presidential Election?

Settled as McCain

"Alabama joined the Union in December 1819 and participated in all elections from 1820 on, except 1864 (due to its secession). Like most southern states, Alabama was a Democratic stronghold from Reconstruction through the 1950s. Southern Democrats were always more conservative than their increasingly liberal northern brethren, which led to a period of during which southern Democrats put slates of unpledged electors on the ballot. This dissension in the party generally didn’t impact the final results, but in 1960, six of the 11 Alabama electors cast their votes for Harry F. Byrd, despite John Kennedy winning the state’s popular vote. Alabama became a GOP stronghold starting in 1964, voting for Democrats only in 1968 and 1976 (for native son George Wallace and Jimmy Carter, respectively). The initial shift was largely in response to white conservative voter uneasiness with the civil rights legislation that was passed in the mid-1960s, which was effectively exploited by the Republicans’ “southern strategy."

Source: 270towin


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Obama
2%
McCain
98%
Activity: H$32,493
Settled as McCain on Tue 4th Nov 10:07pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 5pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 10:07pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 5pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Obama: 25%, McCain: 75%

Action history:

Created Wed 9th Jul 9:43pm PDT by punditwatch[Admin]
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Nov 8:11am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-03 23:59:00"
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 3pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Tue 4th Nov 3:22pm PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-04 15:00:00"
Unsuspended Tue 4th Nov 3:24pm PST by destry[Admin]: Unsuspended until polls close
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 5pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'McCain' Tue 4th Nov 10:07pm PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 5pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 10:07pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 5pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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Predictions (94)

94 predictions

3 weeks ago
rhofer predicted McCain (H$100 at 99%)
3 weeks ago
binder predicted McCain (H$100 at 99%)
3 weeks ago
sakent predicted McCain (H$100 at 99%)
4 weeks ago
sweetkyl predicted Obama (H$5 at 1%)
4 weeks ago
jojo92548 predicted McCain (H$100 at 99%)
more

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