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Will Microsoft Make Another Offer For Yahoo At $30 Or More By End Of 2008?

Current forecast: 7% chance 2%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 7% likely to happen (down 2% in last 1 day)

Silicon Alley Insider is reporting that Yahoo shareholders are now prepared to take $31.50 per share. Sources close to Carl Icahn say he will take anything North of $30 a share. With the stock trading at in the low 20's and alternatives to the Microsoft deal looking non-existent this shouldn't come as much of a surprise.

Will it be enough to bring Microsoft back to the table?


Settlement details: Settled as Yes if Microsoft make an offer of $30 per share or more for the whole of Yahoo before the end of 2008.

 
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Yes
7%
No
93%
Activity: H$112,116
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Thu 10th Jul 2:01am PDT by punditwatch[Admin]

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (150)

150 predictions

1 week ago
rick_marin predicted No (H$50 at 91%)
1 week ago
deanthoreau predicted Yes (H$5 at 9%)
1 week ago
louise_r_marston predicted No (H$100 at 91%)
1 week ago
darkinnit predicted No (H$50 at 91%)
1 week ago
jimbob666 predicted No (H$100 at 91%)
more

Comments (5)

  1 rogerkni
Here's a story in today's Seattle Times:

By MICHAEL LIEDTKE

The Associated Press

SAN FRANCISCO — Yahoo's stock dove to its lowest level in nearly five years today, magnifying the challenge facing the Internet company as its management tries to justify its rebuff of Microsoft 's $47.5 billion takeover bid. Shares fell $1.01, or 5.4 percent, 1 to $17.75, a price unseen since October 2003.

The downturn left Yahoo's market value about $12 billion below what shareholders would have received if the company had accepted Microsoft's takeover offer of $33 a share in May. Microsoft sweetened the offer after Yahoo repeatedly rejected an initial bid of $31 a share made in January.
posted 12 weeks ago
  2 rogerkni
The quote above implies that any offer Microsoft made would be below $30. Here's another quote from that story, which indicates even such a lowball offer is unlikely: "The chances of Microsoft still buying Yahoo are negligible, MS Chief Financial Officer Chris Liddell said at a Citigroup conference in New York. ... We continue to view Yahoo as a declining asset. ... The time came and went."
posted 12 weeks ago
  3 rogerkni
Microsoft's announcement this morning to buy back $40 billion of its stock will empty its piggy bank and make a cash offer for Yahoo out of the question.
posted 10 weeks ago
  4 rogerkni
Here's a story just out, headlined: "Microsoft quashes dreams of 'Micro-hoo'
Commentary: Record buyback deal should kill talk of Yahoo deal"
At: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/microsoft-buyback-quashes-all-hope/story.aspx?guid=%7B5AA33267%2DBB6B%2D457B%2DAC8F%2D3DE23FFCCEB0%7D
posted 10 weeks ago
  5 rogerkni
Yahoo's stock is now under $15, I think. It's unlikely MS would offer over $30 for it now. Very unlikely.
posted 6 weeks ago

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