Created Thu 10th Jul 5:58pm PDT by 
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Will Iran be caught 'embellishing' any more missile launches during 2008?
Current forecast: 22% chance 
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 22% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)
Hey they apparently tried to pass of a 3/4 missile launch this week with a picture that depicted a 4/4 launch. Will they try something similar again? Perhaps a recycled mushroom cloud shot?
Editor note: In this question, "embellishing" refers to images, not statements. Pictures or the visual component of videos must be demonstrably shown to be doctored, faked or mis-attributed (= not documenting the actual event, but some other one) for this to settle as Yes.
Editor note: In this question, "embellishing" refers to images, not statements. Pictures or the visual component of videos must be demonstrably shown to be doctored, faked or mis-attributed (= not documenting the actual event, but some other one) for this to settle as Yes.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Make your prediction!
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Activity: H$6,885
Question suspends in 4 weeks
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%
Action history:
Created Thu 10th Jul 5:58pm PDT by valornhonor
valornhonor
Suspended Wed 20th Aug 9:17am PDT by 
swilson: Suspended pending settlement
swilson: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Wed 20th Aug 9:17am PDT by swilson: Appears as though Iran's claim to have successfully put a satellite in orbit August 16th was not entirely true.
This article was published yesterday. Predictions made at least after this article should be voided.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080819/ts_afp/usiranmilitarymissile_080819202831 (market suspended)
swilson: Appears as though Iran's claim to have successfully put a satellite in orbit August 16th was not entirely true.
This article was published yesterday. Predictions made at least after this article should be voided.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080819/ts_afp/usiranmilitarymissile_080819202831 (market suspended)
Unsuspended Thu 21st Aug 3:18pm PDT by 
infernalmachine![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: Question re-opened. See "editor's note" in Background for clarification of "embellishing". Basically, we're looking for evidence of doctored photos or video (visual portion only). Statements of dubious veracity are NOT grounds for settling this question.
infernalmachine: Question re-opened. See "editor's note" in Background for clarification of "embellishing". Basically, we're looking for evidence of doctored photos or video (visual portion only). Statements of dubious veracity are NOT grounds for settling this question.
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
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cognosComments (2)
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score: 10
Washington Post 2 weeks ago
TEHRAN, Nov. 12 -- Since 2006, Iran's leaders have called for direct, unconditional talks with the United States to resolve international concerns over their nuclear program. But as an American administration open to such negotiations prepares
score: 10
Washington Post 2 weeks ago
TEHRAN, Nov. 12 -- Since 2006, Iran's leaders have called for direct, unconditional talks with the United States to resolve international concerns over their nuclear program. But as an American administration open to such negotiations prepares
score: 10
Washington Post 2 weeks ago
TEHRAN, Nov. 12 -- Since 2006, Iran's leaders have called for direct, unconditional talks with the United States to resolve international concerns over their nuclear program. But as an American administration open to such negotiations prepares
score: 10
Washington Post 2 weeks ago
TEHRAN, Nov. 12 -- Since 2006, Iran's leaders have called for direct, unconditional talks with the United States to resolve international concerns over their nuclear program. But as an American administration open to such negotiations prepares
score: 10
Arms Control Association 6 weeks ago
to identify warheads relative to other objects of comparable size. Because these radars would be relatively close to Iranian missile launch sites, they would detect targets early and receive relatively strong return signals, which is advantageous both
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valornhonor
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Yes, that's a pic of Missile Command up left. [I was bored. ;-) ]
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