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Which country will be the first to be balkanized?

Background: These countries are hotspots of political division, encompassing hostile segments within their own borders. Which one will fracture first? (by suspend date)

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Bolivia
19%
Belgium
8%
Iraq
27%
Sudan
14%
Zimbabwe
3%
None of the above
29%
Question suspends in 2 years

Suspend date: Tue 10th Jul 2012 11:59pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Bolivia: 5%, Belgium: 5%, Iraq: 5%, Sudan: 5%, Zimbabwe: 5%, None of the above: 75%

Action history:

Created Thu 10th Jul 2008 8:44pm PST by cbloom

Suspend date: Tue 10th Jul 2012 11:59pm PST (2 years to go) details

 

Predictions (43)

3 weeks ago
corbelle predicted Iraq (H$20 at 27%)
3 weeks ago
bernardo predicted Sudan (H$500 at 9%)
3 weeks ago
bernardo predicted Bolivia (H$1,000 at 10%)
3 weeks ago
kgholderman predicted None of the above (H$20 at 40%)
8 weeks ago
bookie predicted Iraq (H$20 at 36%)

Comments (2)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
More from the glorious "brilliant and successful operation that has kept us all safer", the US "doing it's level best to bring law and order to the region."

Iraqi president says recent attacks have reached level of genocide and crimes against humanity

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said Thursday a recent series of bombings and terrorist attacks that killed dozens of people has reached the level of genocide and crimes against humanity and should be punished under international law.

Talabani addressed world leaders on a day that Iraq's prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, again claimed that Syria continues to harbour Iraqi insurgents. He said that chances were "nearly hopeless" to resolve disputes with Syria over claims it is providing refuge for former President Saddam Hussein loyalists blamed for a pair of truck bombings on Aug. 19 that killed about 100 people in Baghdad.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5hy8eaB-gIkNfGOi0y8ILXdGBIq8g

God bless America, and protect her servicemen!
posted 8 weeks ago
  2 collieafc
It lists Belguim but doesnt list the UK? Take it the likes of Northern Ireland mean nothing then? =S
posted 8 weeks ago

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