destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
How many users will receive the $20 sign in bonus on Monday July 14, 2008
486 to be exact. The site is actually hollow which means it sounds like there are more users than there are.
Background:
This market obviously will need to be settled by the tech guys at Hubdub. I have absolutely no idea how many, so the odds are being set randomly.
Settlement details:
As reported by the tech team at Hubdub.
Settled
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Less than 100 |
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100 to 199 |
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200 to 299 |
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300 to 399 |
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400 to 499 |
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500 to 599 |
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600 or more |
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Suspend date: Tue 15th Jul 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Tue 15th Jul 12:45pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 15th Jul 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Less than 100: 5%, 100 to 199: 18%, 200 to 299: 18%, 300 to 399: 18%, 400 to 499: 18%, 500 to 599: 18%, 600 or more: 5%
Action history:
destry destry: Please settle. 
nigeleccles: 486 to be exact. The site is actually hollow which means it sounds like there are more users than there are.
Suspend date: Tue 15th Jul 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Tue 15th Jul 12:45pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 15th Jul 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (93)
93 predictions
amice
jaspersoddity
deelilley
anaverageamerican
shojun
racketdad
caveman1144Comments (10)
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We now have 8,246 registered users, therefore, according to current top prediction "100-199" the majority of people are saying that a mere 1.2% - 2.4% of ALL users will log onto this site within the 24 hour period of July 14th. That to me is crazy. Only 1 to 2 out of every 100 users? I think this is wayyyyy low. But I could be dead wrong! I'm willing to bet, and will :-P That it's closer to 5%+ of users, which would translate into 412 users at a flat 5%. But if say Israel or the US attacks Iran, we'll get way over 600, or say Oil tops $150/barrel, or the stock market falls 300 points, or Britney Spears dies in a car accident, again, I think many more will come, but that is pure guess work, but mathematically speaking, I am confident 5% of users will sign on sometime within 24 hours of next Monday :-D
Here is the latest user:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/User/_8246/
lucidstates
@curios ... Dude, I think you're totally confused! :-P
@dieseldog ... Whatcha bettin' man??? Hehe :-D
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