
When will the 3 German mountaineers, kidnapped by the PKK at Mt. Ararat, be released?
Settled
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released or freed before July 21st. |
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released or freed between July 21st and July 31st |
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released or freed in August |
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released or freed in September |
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released or freed in October |
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still in captivity at the beginning of November |
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confirmed dead by suspend date |
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Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source, I would rely on www.spiegel.de
Suspend date: Fri 31st Oct 3:59pm PDT (8 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Mon 21st Jul 12:59pm PDT
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 20th Jul 2:20am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods:
released or freed before July 21st.: 20%, released or freed between July 21st and July 31st: 15%, released or freed in August: 10%, released or freed in September: 10%, released or freed in October: 5%, still in captivity at the beginning of November: 20%, confirmed dead by suspend date: 20%
Action history:
http://www.welt.de/english-news/article2234317/Kurdish_rebel_group_releases_three_German_tourists_following_week-long_hostage.html
Prediction cutoff: 7/20 10:00 EDT (market suspended)
http://www.welt.de/english-news/article2234317/Kurdish_rebel_group_releases_three_German_tourists_following_week-long_hostage.html
Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source, I would rely on www.spiegel.de... read all
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