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Who was behind the assassination of Benazir Bhutto?
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The Pakistan army's alleged links to Islamic extremists are set to come under international scrutiny after the United Nations surprisingly agreed to a request from Islamabad for an investigation into the assassination of the former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.
Bhutto was killed in December in a shooting and suicide bomb attack. Taliban or other Islamist fanatics have been blamed outside of Pakistan for the assassination, though within the country the intelligence agencies and other arms of the state are widely believed to have been involved. Bhutto's widower, Asif Zardari, held "the establishment" responsible shortly after her death.
There is widespread suspicion that sections of the Pakistan military, particularly its ISI intelligence agency, secretly support Taliban fighters in Afghanistan and at home, as a bulwark against foreign influence.
Experts said those alleged links would have to be examined by the UN.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jul/11/benazirbhutto.pakistan1
Caution This is a long term market as investigations by the UN tend to take years to end.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
This question is "event"-based and shall settle in the event of the UN publishing the results of their investigations. If the investigations are closed and no results are published this question should be voided. The suspend date must be adjusted in a way that this question is not suspended until settlement or void.
The options are to be read "the organization or any member of it", except for "lone operators" which means any person or group of persons without a mentioned connection to any specific group of activists, party or similar. The "unascertainable" option only applies if the UN report states that the inquiry did not bring up any results or says to be uncertain so no accusation is made at all.
Make your prediction!
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Taliban or Pakistani Taliban movement |
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Any other Islamist fanatics group |
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Pakistani Intelligence Agency ISI |
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Other sections of the Pakistani military/state |
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Any Political Party, including PPP |
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Other organizations/groups |
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Conspiration of two ore more of the above |
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Lone operators |
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Unascertainable |
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Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 3:59pm PST (2 years to go)
Initial likelihoods: Taliban or Pakistani Taliban movement: 10%, Any other Islamist fanatics group: 10%, Pakistani Intelligence Agency ISI: 10%, Other sections of the Pakistani military/state: 10%, Any Political Party, including PPP: 10%, Other organizations/groups: 15%, Conspiration of two ore more of the above: 15%, Lone operators: 15%, Unascertainable: 5%
Action history:
kruijs
Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 3:59pm PST (2 years to go)
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