Created Fri 11th Jul 1:02pm PDT by 
cjg999
All questions » World » Middle East » cjg999 
If Israel bombs an Iranian nuclear facility, how will Iran respond?
Current forecast: Combination of any of the above answer (53% chance
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Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Combination of any of the above answer with a probability of 53% (unchanged in last 1 day)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7500342.stm
Ehud Barak, speaking in Tel Aviv, said Israel had "proved in the past that it won't hesitate to act when its vital security interests are at stake".
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7467164.stm
Brig Gen Hoseyn Salami, commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards' air force, said: "Our missiles are ready for shooting at any place and any time, quickly and with accuracy."
On Monday, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader said it would retaliate against any military attack by hitting the Israeli city of Tel Aviv.
Other commanders have threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large part of the world's oil flows, and to target the US and its allies around the world if Iran comes under attack.
NOTE: If Israel does not bomb a nuclear facility before the end of the year, this question should be voided.
NOTE: Full-scale attack is intended to mean any combination of forces from various military branches (missiles, navy, army, air force).
Highest initial probabilities are given to responses claimed by government officials in Iran.
Ehud Barak, speaking in Tel Aviv, said Israel had "proved in the past that it won't hesitate to act when its vital security interests are at stake".
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7467164.stm
Brig Gen Hoseyn Salami, commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards' air force, said: "Our missiles are ready for shooting at any place and any time, quickly and with accuracy."
On Monday, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader said it would retaliate against any military attack by hitting the Israeli city of Tel Aviv.
Other commanders have threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large part of the world's oil flows, and to target the US and its allies around the world if Iran comes under attack.
NOTE: If Israel does not bomb a nuclear facility before the end of the year, this question should be voided.
NOTE: Full-scale attack is intended to mean any combination of forces from various military branches (missiles, navy, army, air force).
Highest initial probabilities are given to responses claimed by government officials in Iran.
Make your prediction!
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Launch missile-only attack on Tel Aviv |
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Full-scale attack anywhere in Israel |
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Full attack on US interests in Gulf and Israel |
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Attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz |
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Combination of any of the above answer |
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"Diplomatic" response only |
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None of the above |
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Activity: H$8,448
Question suspends in 19 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (19 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
Launch missile-only attack on Tel Aviv: 30%, Full-scale attack anywhere in Israel : 4%, Full attack on US interests in Gulf and Israel: 2%, Attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz: 30%, Combination of any of the above answer: 30%, "Diplomatic" response only: 2%, None of the above: 2%
Action history:
Created Fri 11th Jul 1:02pm PDT by cjg999
cjg999
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all
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predicted Combination of any of the above answer (H$50 at 49%)Comments
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score: 10
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score: 10
Qatar Peninsula 5 weeks ago
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score: 10
DAWN Group 5 weeks ago
TEHRAN, July 12: Iran would destroy Israel and 32 US military bases in the Middle East if the Islamic Republic was attacked over its disputed nuclear programme, a senior Iranian official was quoted as
score: 10
Trade Arabia 5 weeks ago
Iran would destroy Israel and 32 US military bases in the Middle East if the Islamic Republic was attacked over its disputed nuclear programme, a senior Iranian official was quoted as
score: 10
Eircom.net 5 weeks ago
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New in World » Middle East
Odds description definitions leave room for argument resulting from wording (understandable due to limited space).
"Full-scale attack" / "Full attack" may require further definition. These phrases are generally understood to mean ground troops are used in conjunction with aerial and indirect fire assets. In the above question that would mean that two options included are Iranian attempts to seize control or overrun areas within Israeli borders or U.S. military and naval bases in the areas
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"Close the Strait of Hormuz" might best be re-phrased to "Attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz". IMHO they would likely try and fail. To succeed they would have to effectively completely block all transit through the strait including naval vessels.
Great question! Just trying to stave off a settlement fracas.
I think I'll go for the combo as well.
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