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How many protesters will be arrested during the DNC?

Settled as 101 to 250

Multiple protest groups are planning to descend on Denver for the Democratic National Convention.
Law enforcement is preparing for confrontation(s).

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_9845134

In Chicago during 1968's convention the arrest count was reported as 668. Protests began the friday before the convention.

How many protesters will be arrested during the course of convention week in Denver 8/22 - 8/28?

(I'm starting the odds on a kind of flattened bell curve as I think zero or more than 1000 arrests are both very unlikely.)
 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

No arrests.
3%
1 to 25 arrests.
26%
26 to 50
22%
51 to 75
9%
76 to 100
9%
101 to 250
9%
251 to 500
5%
501 to 750
4%
751 to 1000
4%
Over 1000 arrests
8%
Activity: H$23,717
Settled as 101 to 250 on Today 12:27pm PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Fri 22nd Aug 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Today 12:27pm PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 22nd Aug 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: No arrests.: 2%, 1 to 25 arrests.: 12%, 26 to 50: 12%, 51 to 75 : 12%, 76 to 100: 12%, 101 to 250: 12%, 251 to 500: 12%, 501 to 750: 12%, 751 to 1000: 12%, Over 1000 arrests: 2%

Action history:

Created Fri 11th Jul 3:44pm PDT by bout3fitty
Suspended Fri 22nd Aug 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as '101 to 250' Today 12:27pm PDT by destry[Admin]: 152
http://cbs4denver.com/denver2008/denver.Convention.Arrests.2.805435.html
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (121)

121 predictions

1 week ago
jaredb predicted 1 to 25 arrests. (H$50 at 26%)
1 week ago
that_pete_guy predicted 26 to 50 (H$1,000 at 17%)
1 week ago
craig814 predicted 101 to 250 (H$50 at 25%)
1 week ago
widescreen predicted No arrests. (H$20 at 2%)
1 week ago
widescreen predicted 251 to 500 (H$20 at 13%)
more

Comments (11)

GREAT question! I totally love this one :-D
posted 6 weeks ago
  2 chatarra
GREAT question!
Even though I expect a lot of activity on a citizen activist level, I also think Gov Ritter (famed for "Agricultural Trespass" release of illegal aliens accused of selling drugs) and Mayor Hickenlooper ("Yes my restaurant hired the illegal alien that shot and killed that cop, but no the buck doesn't stop here") want to limit the number of arrests to avoid the appearance of disruption at the Democratic National Convention.

Civic Center Park will be an interesting place to visit during late August.
posted 6 weeks ago
Well, I imagine it will be a lot tamer than 1968 Chicago. But, I still expect there to be a lot of folks whisked off to the poky before the event comes to a close.
posted 6 weeks ago
  5 chatarra
The thing that makes this a tricky question is Mayor (C)Hickenlooper. Look at his lack of response when the Indian activists annually disrupt the Columbus Day Parade.

He is not like Mayor Daily from Chicago 1968 days. Now there was a Mayor who KNEW how to bust some heads. . .
posted 5 weeks ago
I'm not sure that "Hick" will be controlling everything that (un)tightly. I gather that since he has a "D" next to his name, from your perspective his every action is suspect. But, as a local moderate I find his running of the office pretty agreeable.

I have noticed however, that the current way of managing protesters by organizers (of both liberal & conservative bents) has been to arrest them & lock them up (see my last posting of a URL ~ the RNC in 2004 - Bloomberg (I) was in office) until the event is over & then release them w/o charges.

After some study, my money is on 1000+.
posted 3 weeks ago
  7 chatarra
Interesting post :-)

I think most of the DNC event is out of Hick's hands. DNC obviously wants the event to come off cleanly, to reinforce the image of Obama as their candidate.

I want to go and photograph some of the action, but am afraid that I will get hauled off to the pokey. Now there is a hidden jail, that some are referring to as "Gitmo on the Platte". It will probably be a temporary detention center, as you suggest. The freedom fence sounds like a complete waste of chain-link.

Sending the homeless to the movies and to the zoo, sounds like a pretty strange way to cleanse the Denver image.

And how about the news of the guy found dead in the Burnsley Hotel, with a pound of Cyanide in his possession. He had no job, but his family said he went on vacation. (??) I was starting to think he was just a traveling Cyanide salesman. LOL. He is a Canadian Muslim, but he is not getting much press. At least, not as much as he should be getting.

I am frustrated with Hick's repeated assertions that Denver is NOT a sanctuary city, but just a "normal" town where you don't need an ID to vote and where the police are not allowed to ask about your nationality. Especially after the illegal who worked at one of his restaurants, escaped to Mexico after killing the cop. To be fair, he was later returned to the US for prosecution.

But the "R's" are not doing much either. Bush wants to merge Canada and Mexico with the US, to compete with the UK better. I am about ready to vote the entire lot out of office.

I just hope Congress STAYS on vacation. Right now, our country is probably better off without em.
posted 1 week ago
  8 chatarra
Just found this article about the many activists who will be on hand
Guests include but not limited to, Cindy Sheehan, Ward Churchill and former Black Panthers.
I predict it will get really out of hand, after "Rage against the Machine" plays at the anti-war rally.
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/politics/17226029/detail.html
posted 1 week ago
I particularly liked the levitating mint part. :)
DPD has set down the rules:

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_10245448
posted 1 week ago
"We have a pamphlet called the Constitution. A lot of us have read it already," he said - Glenn Spagnuolo, co-founder of protest group Recreate 68

touché!!!
posted 1 week ago

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