Created Sat 12th Jul 9:23pm PDT by 
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All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » ryanj 
Who will win Florida in the 2008 Presidential Election?
Settled as Obama
Florida has always been a state which requires effort to win. In the election McCain for now has many advantages in the state. The aging population of Florida are a large make up of McCain's voting base. Senior citizens who are more likely to vote for McCain are also more likely to come out in larger numbers, in comparison to other age demographics.
Not to mention the wide base of support for McCain from within the Cuban-American community in Florida. Obama's recent problems with Jewish voters will also play into McCain's hands. So how is Obama to win this state? For now it's unclear. Almost certainly Obama would have to win over almost all of Hillary's supporters (many Floridians are ex-New Yorkers), he'd have to dramatically expand the youth vote and reign in the Jewish vote.
This is all possible by the election, but the question is will Obama put in the large amount of effort needed to win Floirda, when he can go gobble up other GOP strongholds?
* Due to the creation of a "Hubdub Electoral Map" and the need to have multi-option state markets instead of yes/no ones, this market will not be seen as a duplicate of this market
Not to mention the wide base of support for McCain from within the Cuban-American community in Florida. Obama's recent problems with Jewish voters will also play into McCain's hands. So how is Obama to win this state? For now it's unclear. Almost certainly Obama would have to win over almost all of Hillary's supporters (many Floridians are ex-New Yorkers), he'd have to dramatically expand the youth vote and reign in the Jewish vote.
This is all possible by the election, but the question is will Obama put in the large amount of effort needed to win Floirda, when he can go gobble up other GOP strongholds?
* Due to the creation of a "Hubdub Electoral Map" and the need to have multi-option state markets instead of yes/no ones, this market will not be seen as a duplicate of this market
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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McCain |
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Obama |
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Activity: H$279,989
Settled as Obama on Tue 4th Nov 10:13pm PST
Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 4pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 10:13pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 4pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: McCain: 60%, Obama: 40%
Action history:
Created Sat 12th Jul 9:23pm PDT by ryanj
ryanj
Changed Description Mon 6th Oct 2:37pm PDT by ryanj: show details
ryanj: show details ... comparison to other age demographics. <.<br/> <br/> Not to mention ... reign in the Jewish vote. <.<br/> <br/> This is all ... ? <br/> <br/> * Due to the impending creation of a "Hubdub Electoral
Changed Description Sat 1st Nov 10:36am PDT by 
destry: show details
destry: show details ... comparison to other age demographics.<. <br/> <br/> Not to mention ... reign in the Jewish vote.<. <br/> <br/> This is all
Changed Suspend date Sat 1st Nov 10:36am PDT by destry: was: "2008-11-03 23:59:00"
destry: was: "2008-11-03 23:59:00"
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Nov 8:14am PST by destry: was: "2008-11-04 16:00:00"
destry: was: "2008-11-04 16:00:00"
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 3pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Tue 4th Nov 3:28pm PST by destry: was: "2008-11-04 15:00:00"
destry: was: "2008-11-04 15:00:00"
Unsuspended Tue 4th Nov 3:30pm PST by destry: Unsuspended until polls close
destry: Unsuspended until polls close
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 4pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Obama' Tue 4th Nov 10:13pm PST by destry
destry
Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 4pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 10:13pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 4pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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score: 10
Jerusalem Post 2 weeks ago
A roaring crowd greeted Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama at his final stop in this hotly contested state Monday, as he urged his cheering supporters to think about one thing on the penultimate day of the campaign: tomorrow
score: 10
Jerusalem Post 2 weeks ago
A roaring crowd greeted Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama at his final stop in this hotly contested state Monday, as he urged his cheering supporters to think about one thing on the penultimate day of the campaign: tomorrow
score: 10
CNN 2 weeks ago
and look at various states and see where the polling is leaning as -- take a look at Minnesota right now, 53 percent to 42. You just scroll over to it and boom, the latest polling numbers come up. When you see a CNN, it means it's a
score: 10
CNN 2 weeks ago
IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Everybody's got a smile on their face. You start -- you start thinking that maybe we might be able to win an election on
score: 10
HispanicBusiness.com 2 weeks ago
Significant shifts in the political leanings and demographics of Florida's Hispanic voters have enhanced the competitiveness of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in the 2008 national elections, said the Pew Hispanic Center in a report
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http://news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080921/NEWS0107/80921022
obama....florida appearance
fyi notablenotices
“She went to perhaps the easiest place in Florida”
“But she was welcomed like a star”
No attributions whatsoever....clearly opinion.
This sort of writing is an insult and belongs on the editorial pages.
And newspapers wonder why their circulations are dwindling....
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollPrint.aspx?g=83889f62-d3ce-4176-a1a1-164a31cbf1e2&d=0
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/01/battleground.polls/index.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/IA_Fla_100108.pdf
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Suffolk_Final_Florida_10_01_2008.htm
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1218
here comes Hillary
The Audacity of Hype: Having hauled in a record $208,333 every hour of every day last month -- $150 million in all -- plus a few more unreported millions so far this month, Barack Obama is worried that he might come up short in the political money war with the John McCain-Sarah Palin ticket.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/campaign-2008/story/736663.html
(may not include absentee or provisional ballots)
Generated: 11/4/2008 10:15 PM
McCain - 48.7%% - 3,282,431
Obama - 50.5% - 3,406,828
http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/
(may not include absentee or provisional ballots)
Generated: 11/4/2008 10:26 PM
McCain - 48.7% - 3,356,088
Obama - 50.5% - 3,482,087
http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/
(may not include absentee or provisional ballots)
Generated: 11/4/2008 10:57 PM
McCain - 48.6% - 3,576,534
Obama - 50.6% - 3,719,917
http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/
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