Created Sat 12th Jul 9:56pm PDT by 
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Who will win Michigan in the 2008 Presidential Election?
Current forecast: Obama (59% chance
3%)
3%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Obama with a probability of 59% (up 3% in last 1 day)
Michigan is a state severely stained by the economic downturn. But Michigan's problems didn't start with the housing market collapse. Globalization and the transfer of automotive jobs from the US to foreign nations have long plagued the state, and the recession or soon to be recession will do it no favors.
For now Obama enjoys a small lead in the state, no doubt helped by the fact that he's a Democrat, but like elsewhere in the nation many citizens in Michigan don't know Obama or his policies and principles.
The closeness of the current polls reflects the thinking that Michigan is certain to be a deciding point in this election. This said McCain although down in the polls by a smidgen, may be boosted by a VP pick which focuses on the economy. Some GOP strategists, Chris Matthews and others have bet that Romney offers the 1-2 punch to give McCain Michigan.
* Due to the impending creation of a "Hubdub Electoral Map" and the need to have multi-option state markets instead of yes/no ones, this market will not be seen as a duplicate of this market
For now Obama enjoys a small lead in the state, no doubt helped by the fact that he's a Democrat, but like elsewhere in the nation many citizens in Michigan don't know Obama or his policies and principles.
The closeness of the current polls reflects the thinking that Michigan is certain to be a deciding point in this election. This said McCain although down in the polls by a smidgen, may be boosted by a VP pick which focuses on the economy. Some GOP strategists, Chris Matthews and others have bet that Romney offers the 1-2 punch to give McCain Michigan.
* Due to the impending creation of a "Hubdub Electoral Map" and the need to have multi-option state markets instead of yes/no ones, this market will not be seen as a duplicate of this market
Make your prediction!
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McCain |
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Obama |
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Activity: H$13,335
Question suspends in 9 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 3:59pm PST (9 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
McCain: 50%, Obama: 50%
Action history:
Created Sat 12th Jul 9:56pm PDT by ryanj
ryanj
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all
Get widget!New!Predictions (65)
65 predictions
alphaomega51
valornhonor![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted McCain (H$1,000 at 37%)
johndeboer
morgie
donal
lovebegetswealthComments (0)
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score: 10
Detroit News 4 days ago
a briefing to about 50 reporters from battleground states, previewed the likely Democratic response to Romney if the Michigan native and former Massachusetts governor becomes McCain's running mate. Romney, who before entering politics was a successful
score: 10
St. Petersburg Times Russia 4 days ago
Barack Obama (l) introduces Joe Biden (r) as his vice presidential running mate in Springfield, Illinois, on Saturday. DENVER ? Barack Obama?s choice of Joe Biden as a running mate sets the bar for John McCain. The Republican could use his own
score: 10
Time 4 days ago
be enough to keep McCain from choosing Romney and reaping the net benefit in a key state like Michigan. What it may do is bring both lines of attack to an end, as the media eventually agrees that it's pretty pointless. More VP analysis as always in the VP
score: 10
Macro World Investor 5 days ago
say he may help some. Likewise, Obama's campaign hopes Biden gives Democrats an edge in Midwest states like Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa that are home to the same types of voters. 'Biden is a blue-collar, pro-union attractive candidate,' said Scott
score: 10
Detroit News 5 days ago
Not all Michigan Republicans are thrilled that Mitt Romney could be the vice presidential running mate John McCain names in his expected announcement Friday. At the state GOP's weekend convention in Novi, most said they would love to have Michigan-reared
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