bayoubear
How many of the former Confederate States will Obama win in the Presidential Election?
Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
Background:
But really, Obama does have a chance to win some of these Southern states, breaking the stranglehold the Republican Party has had on the South for most of the last 40+ years. Some are looking at Georgia as a possibility, Virginia has a good chance of going Democratic, and there are possibilities elsewhere as well. Mississippi and Louisiana just elected Democratic Congressmen in special elections to fill seats formerly safely held by Republicans for years.
So, how many of these former states of the Confederate States of America (Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas, and Tennessee) will Obama win the popular vote? Does not have to have a majority, just a plurality.
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
| Obama wins none of 11 |
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| Obama wins only one of 11 |
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| Obama wins only two of 11 |
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| Obama wins only three of 11 |
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| Obama wins only four of 11 |
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| Obama wins only five of 11 |
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| Obama wins only six of 11 |
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| Obama wins only seven of 11 |
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| Obama wins only eight of 11 |
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| Obama wins nine or more of 11 |
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- Activity: H$76,542 |
- Predictions: 473 |
Comments: 7
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 2008 2:52pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Obama wins none of 11 : 14%, Obama wins only one of 11 : 16%, Obama wins only two of 11 : 18%, Obama wins only three of 11 : 14%, Obama wins only four of 11 : 10%, Obama wins only five of 11 : 8%, Obama wins only six of 11 : 7%, Obama wins only seven of 11 : 6%, Obama wins only eight of 11 : 5%, Obama wins nine or more of 11 : 2%
Action history:
measure
: I believe all these states have been called, and I believe the correct answer is three. 
destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia 
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 2008 2:52pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (473)
bgrigore
predicted Obama wins only four of 11 (H$480 at 22%)Comments (7)
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They're only giving obama an 8 percent shot at winning GA. Not great.
Trends and history put NC most likely with McCain, and Florida is a true toss-up, right down till all the votes are counted (and hopefully not thrown away like 8 years ago).
I see a lot of people predicting three when a look at the true odds of potential scenarios on realclearpolitics or fivethirtyeight would incline someone to predict two.
4 states and up total 38% - these options are impossible.
zero is at 5% - yet the aggregate chance of him losing VA, NC, and FL are less than 1%.
So, 43% of the predictions can be reasonably considered to be void, meaning there is a lot of money to be made guessing one right (1/2/3), or spreading it among those three and still banking a profit.
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