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How many Republicans will be in Obama's cabinet?

Current forecast: Zero (28% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Zero with a probability of 28% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Obama has shown a willingness to keep Republicans in the highest levels of government.
 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Zero
28%
One
15%
Two
20%
Three
24%
Four
11%
Five or more
2%
Activity: H$18,024
Question suspends in 20 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Members of the cabinet must be confirmed by the Senate. National Security Advisor, Drug Czar and Intelligence Czar will be counted as cabinet positions.

Suspend date: Thu 15th Jan 2009 11:59pm PST (20 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Zero: 5%, One: 12%, Two: 26%, Three: 38%, Four: 17%, Five or more: 2%

Action history:

Created Sun 13th Jul 12:11pm PDT by reverend_right
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Members of the cabinet must be confirmed by the Senate. National Security Advisor, Drug Czar and Intelligence Czar will be counted as cabinet positions.... read all

 

Predictions (86)

86 predictions

6 hours ago
luvjoy78 predicted Two (H$50 at 20%)
6 days ago
brosenau predicted Three (H$9 at 23%)
6 days ago
brosenau predicted Zero (H$11 at 28%)
6 days ago
brosenau predicted Two (H$20 at 19%)
6 days ago
brosenau predicted One (H$20 at 16%)
more

Comments (5)

Can you cite any articles in the MSM in which Obama has shown any inclination to include Republicans in his cabinet? Initial odds favoring Three seem a bit off without supporting documentation.

Neither flagging nor suspending.

Regards,
AAA
posted 6 weeks ago
Will this be settled as zero or voided if Obama doesn't win?
posted 4 weeks ago
Will this be settled as zero or voided if Obama doesn't win?
posted 4 weeks ago
  4 destry[Admin]
@majorgeeky - This is one of the "IF / Then" markets. If Obama is not elected then this market will be voided.
posted 4 weeks ago
averageamerican-- here's an article which cites the possibility http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3466823.ece. If he follows the example of clinton he will appoint republicans to national security positions. Presidents usually have at least one token member of the other party in their cabinet, even Bush did this with Mineta. Obama with his spiel of "post-party politics" and his own "middle of the road" policy positions seems to be willing to nominate more than one.
posted 4 weeks ago

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