Created Sun 13th Jul 2008 11:11am PST by

reverend_right Level 13, Psychic (H$96,113)

How many Republicans will be in President Obama's cabinet?

Settled as Two

Background: Obama has shown a willingness to keep Republicans in the highest levels of government.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Members of the cabinet must be confirmed by the Senate. National Security Advisor, Drug Czar and Intelligence Czar will be counted as cabinet positions.

Forecast history %

Zero

One

Two

78%

Three

13%

Four

Five or more

Settled as Two on Wed 12th Aug 11:03pm PST

Activity: H$99,423
Predictions: 234
Comments: 14

Suspend date: Thu 15th Jan 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 12th Aug 11:03pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 15th Jan 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Zero: 5%, One: 12%, Two: 26%, Three: 38%, Four: 17%, Five or more: 2%

Action history:

Created Sun 13th Jul 2008 11:11am PST by

reverend_right Level 13, Psychic (H$96,113)

Changed Question text Tue 4th Nov 2008 11:34pm PST by

destry [Admin]

: ... many Republicans will be in President Obama's cabinet?

Suspended Thu 15th Jan 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Tue 19th May 7:22pm PST by

glenda78748 Level 11, Legend (H$17,245)

: when are we going to settle this question?

Settlement requested Sun 7th Jun 9:47pm PST by

glenda78748 Level 11, Legend (H$17,245)

: Why hasn't this question been settled?

Settlement requested Sun 12th Jul 9:11pm PST by

glenda78748 Level 11, Legend (H$17,245)

: It's been a year now. Any idea when this question will be settled?

Settlement requested Wed 12th Aug 10:54pm PST by

elly

: Is this a normal for the staff - waiting for settlement more than yar?Or you don't know the answer??

Settled as 'Two' Wed 12th Aug 11:03pm PST by

destry [Admin]

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Predictions (234)

44 weeks ago

shojun Level 13, Psychic (H$66,833)

predicted Two (H$500 at 77%)

44 weeks ago

cajnj

predicted Two (H$100 at 75%)

44 weeks ago

ponybeer2002 Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,338)

predicted Two (H$20 at 75%)

44 weeks ago

greyarea Level 9, Expert (H$9,356)

predicted Two (H$20 at 75%)

44 weeks ago

lcsnor Level 15, Seer (H$282,099)

predicted Two (H$200 at 74%)

Comments (14)

anaverageamerican Level 13, Psychic (H$72,956)

Can you cite any articles in the MSM in which Obama has shown any inclination to include Republicans in his cabinet? Initial odds favoring Three seem a bit off without supporting documentation.

Neither flagging nor suspending.

Regards,
AAA

posted 1 year ago

majorgeeky Level 8, Super-Pro (H$7,026)

Will this be settled as zero or voided if Obama doesn't win?

posted 1 year ago

majorgeeky Level 8, Super-Pro (H$7,026)

Will this be settled as zero or voided if Obama doesn't win?

posted 1 year ago

destry [Admin]

@majorgeeky - This is one of the "IF / Then" markets. If Obama is not elected then this market will be voided.

posted 1 year ago

reverend_right Level 13, Psychic (H$96,113)

averageamerican-- here's an article which cites the possibility http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3466823.ece. If he follows the example of clinton he will appoint republicans to national security positions. Presidents usually have at least one token member of the other party in their cabinet, even Bush did this with Mineta. Obama with his spiel of "post-party politics" and his own "middle of the road" policy positions seems to be willing to nominate more than one.

posted 1 year ago

smidge76 Level 14, Prophet (H$204,771)

Republicans mentioned as being on the short list. I'm sure this isn't complete, and I'm not attesting to the probability of the selections -- just noting them:

Defense Secretary: current Sec. Robert Gates, Sen. Chuck Hagel (NE)
Secretary of State: Sen. Richard Lugar (IN)
Education Secretary: former Gov. Tom Kean (NJ)
Commerce Secretary: Sen. Olympia Snowe (ME)
Homeland Security Secretary: Sen. Susan Collins (ME)
Secretary of Energy: Gov. Arnold Schwarzeneggar (CA)

I'm assuming that any cabinet-level administrative offices not mentioned in the settlement details are not being included, but just in case, former Sen. Lincoln Chaffee (RI) is being mentioned for Administrator of the EPA.

posted 1 year ago

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,425,216)

Hee hee... the Govenator could also help Obama with his squats :-D

posted 1 year ago

dragonfangxl Level 7, Pro (H$3,936)

"He needs to put meat on his policys... and his body"-governator
Is he really going to put schwarzenneggar on his staff? That seems unlikely considering arnold was insulting him throughout the race!

posted 1 year ago

conspiracy2riot Level 14, Prophet (H$100,047)

Gates is still there (although I'm uncertain he counts as he will probably leave in March or when he's replaced) and Geithner has been confirmed. They are both Republicans. Anybody else we know about? What of this Admiral Blair dude? I've never met a republican Admiral....

posted 42 weeks ago

conspiracy2riot Level 14, Prophet (H$100,047)

DOH!! I mean I've never met anything BUT Republican Admirals...and yes...I've met quite a few....Had a 2 star in my family...you get invited to alot of crap.

posted 42 weeks ago

conspiracy2riot Level 14, Prophet (H$100,047)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/29/judd-gregg-commerce-secre_n_162378.html

Gregg (R) is a consideration for Commerce Secretary. I rather hope he gets it.

I am currently trying to confirm Geithner went from Republican to Independent during the Clinton years. Still say he's a rethug at heart but for the purposes of settlement and all....

posted 42 weeks ago

bayoubear [Admin]

It's been a while since any comments regarding this question....are we still waiting for all the positions to be filled?

posted 31 weeks ago

elly

Yes Bayoubear, you are wrignt! It is not normal to wait till the end of the Obama's cabinet, for example.

posted 28 weeks ago

elly

Sorry for the mistake, I have in mind right, not wright :).

posted 28 weeks ago

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