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Who will declare war first?

Current forecast: None (65% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is None with a probability of 65% (unchanged in last 1 day)

It must be an official declaration of war (not just warlike operations) to settle this question.

"Before the enemies can put their fingers on the trigger, the armed forces will cut off their hands." (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad)

Before Bush leaves office.

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7011593304
 
Forecast history, %
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USA
13%
Israel
17%
Iran
6%
None
65%
Activity: H$16,480
Question suspends in 19 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Tue 20th Jan 2009 11:59pm PST (19 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: USA: 4%, Israel: 4%, Iran: 7%, None: 85%

Action history:

Created Sun 13th Jul 1:33pm PDT by kruijs[Power User]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (98)

98 predictions

2 days ago
demijohn predicted None (H$100 at 64%)
2 days ago
fisjon predicted USA (H$50 at 13%)
2 days ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted None (H$500 at 63%)
4 days ago
youbet predicted None (H$100 at 60%)
4 days ago
newswrangler[Power User] predicted None (H$1,000 at 56%)
more

Comments (6)

If one of these countries declares war, I won't be much interested in HubDub dollars. Do countries actually declare war these days? I thought they just decided they were in danger of the other side's weapons of mass destruction, while ignoring their own.
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 kruijs[Power User]
that's good spot, john, that's why I pointed out it should be an official one. and that's why the None-option is so high.
posted 7 weeks ago
  4 dieseldog
does it have to be war amongest each other? say usa declares war on france...will that count as a yes for usa?
posted 7 weeks ago
  5 kruijs[Power User]
Yes. It asks for a war declaration - but not restricted to the countries listed.
posted 7 weeks ago
  6 dieseldog
@kruijs..thanks for the clarifiying. have a nice day.
posted 7 weeks ago

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