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Created Mon 14th Jul 4:50am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » 

Who will win California in the 2008 presidential election?

Settled as Obama

California has 55 electoral college votes and was almost too close to call in 2004, so things could get interesting this time out.
Results from 2004:
CandidateVotesShare of vote
Bush (rep)550982644.36%
Kerry (dem)674548554.30%
Others1665411.34%
Total12421852100%
source: http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/federalelections2004.shtml


Settlement details: Determined by actual ballot results (not forecasts) as reported in mainstream media

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 McCain
1%
Obama
99%
Activity: H$116,308
Settled as Obama on Tue 4th Nov 10:11pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 8pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 10:11pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 8pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: McCain: 35%, Obama: 65%

Action history:

Created Mon 14th Jul 4:50am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Changed Description Mon 3rd Nov 8:12am PST by destry[Admin]: show details
... get interesting this time out.<br/><br/><table class="usertable" align="center"
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Nov 8:12am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-03 23:59:00"
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 3pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 3pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Tue 4th Nov 3:06pm PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-04 15:00:00"
Unsuspended Tue 4th Nov 3:06pm PST by destry[Admin]: Unsuspended until polls close
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 8pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Obama' Tue 4th Nov 10:11pm PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 8pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 10:11pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 8pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (165)

165 predictions

2 weeks ago
ally1219 predicted Obama (H$100 at 99%)
2 weeks ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted McCain (H$1 at 1%)
2 weeks ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted McCain (H$1 at 1%)
2 weeks ago
llama5492 predicted Obama (H$100 at 99%)
2 weeks ago
binder predicted Obama (H$50 at 99%)
more

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