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Created Mon 14th Jul 4:50am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » 

Who will win Illinois in the 2008 presidential election?

Settled as Obama

Illinois has 21 electoral college votes and was almost too close to call in 2004, so things could get interesting this time out.
Results from 2004:
CandidateVotesShare of vote
Bush (rep)234594644.48%
Kerry (dem)289155054.82%
Others368260.70%
Total5274322100%
source: http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/federalelections2004.shtml


Settlement details: Determined by actual ballot results (not forecasts) as reported in mainstream media

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 McCain
1%
Obama
99%
Activity: H$35,839
Settled as Obama on Tue 4th Nov 9:49pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 9:49pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: McCain: 35%, Obama: 65%

Action history:

Created Mon 14th Jul 4:50am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Changed Description Mon 3rd Nov 8:19am PST by destry[Admin]: show details
... get interesting this time out.<br/><br/><table class="usertable" align="center"
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Nov 8:19am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-03 23:59:00"
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Obama' Tue 4th Nov 9:49pm PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 9:49pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (54)

54 predictions

2 weeks ago
cognos[Power User] predicted McCain (H$20 at 1%)
2 weeks ago
veaney predicted Obama (H$2,000 at 100%)
2 weeks ago
kevinvuichard predicted Obama (H$100 at 99%)
2 weeks ago
gianmy predicted Obama (H$20 at 96%)
3 weeks ago
sosakan predicted Obama (H$20 at 98%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 owlcreekobserver
This is a no-brainer. Chicago is a Democrat fortress and the rest of the state is dragged along. Two great examples: Obama and Durbin.
posted 16 weeks ago

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