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Who will win Maine in the 2008 presidential election?

Settled as Obama

Maine has 4 electoral college votes and was almost too close to call in 2004, so things could get interesting this time out.
Results from 2004:
CandidateVotesShare of vote
Bush (rep)33020144.58%
Kerry (dem)39684253.57%
Others137091.85%
Total740752100%
source: http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/federalelections2004.shtml


Settlement details: Determined by actual ballot results (not forecasts) as reported in mainstream media

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

McCain
1%
Obama
99%
Activity: H$28,227
Settled as Obama on Tue 4th Nov 9:49pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 9:49pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: McCain: 37%, Obama: 63%

Action history:

Created Mon 14th Jul 4:50am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Nov 8:20am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-03 23:59:00"
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Obama' Tue 4th Nov 9:49pm PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 9:49pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (34)

34 predictions

2 weeks ago
davecade predicted Obama (H$100 at 99%)
2 weeks ago
blanquita predicted Obama (H$100 at 99%)
2 weeks ago
destry[Admin] predicted Obama (H$10,000 at 97%)
2 weeks ago
gianmy predicted Obama (H$20 at 93%)
2 weeks ago
morgie predicted McCain (H$50 at 6%)
more

Comments (1)

I've created a question on whether or not McCain will win any of Maine's electoral votes (Maine has a split vote): http://www.hubdub.com/m18196/Will_McCain_win_any_of_Maines_electoral_votes
posted 7 weeks ago

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