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Who will win Missouri in the 2008 presidential election?

Settled as McCain

Missouri has 11 electoral college votes and was almost too close to call in 2004, so things could get interesting this time out.
Results from 2004:
CandidateVotesShare of vote
Bush (rep)145571353.30%
Kerry (dem)125917146.10%
Others164800.60%
Total2731364100%
source: http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/federalelections2004.shtml


Settlement details: As reported by mainstream media.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

McCain
40%
Obama
60%
Activity: H$113,621
Settled as McCain on Wed 5th Nov 9:09pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 5pm PST Settlement date: Wed 5th Nov 9:09pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 5pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: McCain: 61%, Obama: 39%

Action history:

Created Mon 14th Jul 4:50am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Changed Suspend date Sat 1st Nov 10:56am PDT by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-03 23:59:00"
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Nov 8:23am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-04 16:00:00"
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Tue 4th Nov 3:14pm PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-04 14:59:00"
Unsuspended Tue 4th Nov 3:15pm PST by destry[Admin]: Unsuspended until polls close
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 5pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 5th Nov 8:32am PST by rbrog77: Close one, but it was called at 49-49% for McCain with total vote count being 1,442,577 - 1,436,724 votes.
Settlement requested Wed 5th Nov 9:34am PST by rhpt: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/state/#MO

McCain 50%
Obama 49%
100% of precints reporting.
Settlement requested Wed 5th Nov 9:03pm PST by daleo: McCain won Missouri.
Settled as 'McCain' Wed 5th Nov 9:09pm PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 5pm PST Settlement date: Wed 5th Nov 9:09pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 5pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (482)

482 predictions

2 weeks ago
ike_j08 predicted Obama (H$100 at 60%)
2 weeks ago
binder predicted Obama (H$50 at 58%)
2 weeks ago
jpkoester1 predicted Obama (H$89 at 57%)
2 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted Obama (H$400 at 54%)
2 weeks ago
daleo predicted McCain (H$225 at 45%)
more

Comments (11)

I'm originally from Missouri, and trust me... the racists I left behind will NEVER elect Obama. Give them another 100 years and they might evolve sufficiently. If someone did a completely anonymous survey their answers would reveal their true prejudices. To them, just voting for a woman, even for the subservient role of VP, represents a MAJOR move to the left. Obama hasn't got a chance against an old right-wing homophobe running with a gun-toting, oppressively religious runningmate.
posted 10 weeks ago
Obama campaign is asking Missouri law enforcement to target anyone who lies or runs a misleading TV ad: http://video.yahoo.com/watch/3570822/9872219

Missouri Governor's response:
http://governor.mo.gov/cgi-bin/coranto/viewnews.cgi?id=EkkkVFulkpOzXqGMaj&style=Default+News+Style&tmpl=newsitem
posted 7 weeks ago
What a great idea for a name! I wish i had named myself People_who_are_named_"Conservatives_suck"_are untolerant_bastards_who_suck! Great idea no? Im going to make a new account with that name right now!
posted 7 weeks ago
No more than one account is allowed per person. One of the accounts will be deleted.
posted 7 weeks ago
I was kidding. Damn you and your all seeing eyes!
posted 7 weeks ago
  7 coolkraft
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/10/18/obama-rally-draws-100000-in-missouri/

wonder why they are all coming to see Obama....lol
posted 4 weeks ago
  8 coolkraft
Claire has done her job....
posted 4 weeks ago
Agree with CS on this one.

Southwest Missouri is the old home of Limbaugh family and the Ashcroft family.

Both will probably lean somewhat to left of Stalin in some circles in that part of Missouri.

This will all be about turn out in St. Louis City.

The county to watch will be St. Charles County - if that is even competitive for Obama (within 5%) then McCain is toast in Missouri.

Otherwise, Obama will likely lose.

But this is one very strange election. So who knows what's going to happen.
posted 4 weeks ago
  10 duckie
MIssouri has correctly determined the future president for something like half a century. I think it will go obama.
posted 2 weeks ago
  11 duckie
correction, missouri has only gotten it wrong once in the last 104 years. i hope they get it right this time.
posted 2 weeks ago

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