Created Mon 14th Jul 4:50am PDT by 
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All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » ryanj Who will win New Mexico in the 2008 presidential election?
Current forecast: Obama (67% chance
1%)
1%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Obama with a probability of 67% (down 1% in last 1 day)
New Mexico has 5 electoral college votes and was almost too close to call in 2004, so things could get interesting this time out.
| Results from 2004: | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | Share of vote |
| Bush (rep) | 376930 | 49.84% |
| Kerry (dem) | 370942 | 49.05% |
| Others | 8432 | 1.11% |
| Total | 756304 | 100% |
| source: http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/federalelections2004.shtml | ||
Make your prediction!
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McCain |
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Obama |
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Activity: H$11,745
Question suspends in 8 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details:
Determined by actual ballot results (not forecasts) as reported in mainstream media
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST (8 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
McCain: 51%, Obama: 49%
Action history:
Created Mon 14th Jul 4:50am PDT by ryanj
ryanj
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details: Determined by actual ballot results (not forecasts) as reported in mainstream media... read all
Get widget!New!Predictions (67)
67 predictions
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score: 10
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score: 10
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score: 10
Macleans Online 5 days ago
there are these two, looming larger than most others because they offer such a rich opportunity for Republican John McCain and potential peril for Democrat Barack Obama. What worries Obama, and gives McCain hope, is that both states have hundreds of
score: 10
Newsday 5 days ago
there are these two, looming larger than most others because they offer such a rich opportunity for Republican John McCain and potential peril for Democrat Barack Obama.What worries Obama, and gives McCain hope, is that both states have hundreds of
score: 10
International Herald Tribune 5 days ago
there are these two, looming larger than all others because they offer such a rich opportunity for Republican John McCain and potential peril for Democrat Barack Obama. If McCain carries either one, he could lose several states that President Bush won
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