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Who will win Oregon in the 2008 presidential election?

Settled as Obama

Oregon has 7 electoral college votes and was almost too close to call in 2004, so things could get interesting this time out.
Results from 2004:
CandidateVotesShare of vote
Bush (rep)86683147.19%
Kerry (dem)94316351.35%
Others267881.46%
Total1836782100%
source: http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/federalelections2004.shtml


Settlement details: Determined by actual ballot results (not forecasts) as reported in mainstream media

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

McCain
1%
Obama
99%
Activity: H$33,195
Settled as Obama on Tue 4th Nov 9:45pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 8pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 9:45pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 8pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: McCain: 44%, Obama: 56%

Action history:

Created Mon 14th Jul 4:50am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Nov 8:33am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-03 23:59:00"
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Nov 8:33am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-04 14:59:00"
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Nov 8:33am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-04 15:59:00"
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Tue 4th Nov 3:07pm PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-04 14:59:00"
Unsuspended Tue 4th Nov 3:08pm PST by destry[Admin]: Unsuspended until polls close
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 8pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Obama' Tue 4th Nov 9:45pm PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 8pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 9:45pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 8pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (64)

64 predictions

2 weeks ago
jensir predicted Obama (H$100 at 99%)
2 weeks ago
jimmsolo predicted McCain (H$10 at 0%)
2 weeks ago
jensir predicted Obama (H$300 at 97%)
2 weeks ago
gianmy predicted Obama (H$20 at 97%)
2 weeks ago
jmhx predicted Obama (H$100 at 97%)
more

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