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Who will win South Dakota in the 2008 presidential election?

Settled as McCain

South Dakota has 3 electoral college votes and was comfortably republican in 2004, but could things change this time out?
Results from 2004:
CandidateVotesShare of vote
Bush (rep)23258459.91%
Kerry (dem)14924438.44%
Others63871.65%
Total388215100%
source: http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/federalelections2004.shtml


Settlement details: Determined by actual ballot results (not forecasts) as reported in mainstream media

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

McCain
95%
Obama
5%
Activity: H$27,933
Settled as McCain on Tue 4th Nov 9:44pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 6pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 9:44pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 6pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: McCain: 79%, Obama: 21%

Action history:

Created Mon 14th Jul 4:50am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Nov 8:32am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-03 23:59:00"
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Nov 8:33am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-04 14:59:00"
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Nov 8:34am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-03 23:59:00"
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Tue 4th Nov 3:25pm PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-04 14:59:00"
Unsuspended Tue 4th Nov 3:26pm PST by destry[Admin]: Unsuspended until polls close
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 6pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'McCain' Tue 4th Nov 9:44pm PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 6pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 9:44pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 6pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (35)

35 predictions

2 weeks ago
steez predicted Obama (H$50 at 5%)
2 weeks ago
bookie predicted Obama (H$20 at 4%)
2 weeks ago
gianmy predicted McCain (H$20 at 96%)
3 weeks ago
sosakan predicted McCain (H$20 at 96%)
3 weeks ago
lukeh predicted Obama (H$100 at 4%)
more

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