Created Mon 14th Jul 4:50am PDT by 
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Who will win Vermont in the 2008 presidential election?
Current forecast: Obama (98% chance
)
)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Obama with a probability of 98% (unchanged in last 1 day)
Vermont has 3 electoral college votes and was easily democratic in 2004, but could they swing for McCain?
| Results from 2004: | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | Share of vote |
| Bush (rep) | 121180 | 38.80% |
| Kerry (dem) | 184067 | 58.94% |
| Others | 7062 | 2.26% |
| Total | 312309 | 100% |
| source: http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/federalelections2004.shtml | ||
Make your prediction!
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McCain |
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Obama |
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Activity: H$12,165
Question suspends in 9 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details:
Determined by actual ballot results (not forecasts) as reported in mainstream media
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST (9 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
McCain: 22%, Obama: 78%
Action history:
Created Mon 14th Jul 4:50am PDT by ryanj
ryanj
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details: Determined by actual ballot results (not forecasts) as reported in mainstream media... read all
Get widget!New!Predictions (10)
10 predictions
jenniandboys
ben1
coolkraft
thomismydad
newswrangler![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted Obama (H$200 at 80%)
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