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Will the courts arrest Sudan's Beshir for war crimes in Darfur

Current forecast: 48% chance 2%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 48% likely to happen (down 2% in last 1 day)

14 July 2008
THE HAGUE (AFP) — The prosecutor for the International Criminal Court on Monday asked for an arrest warrant against Sudan's President Omar al-Beshir for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur.

Read more here...
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jsXYYRW9_vbE5Wx67u8rBZBgpJJA


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
48%
No
52%
Activity: H$3,420
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Mon 14th Jul 5:18am PDT by curios

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (9)

9 predictions

3 hours ago
duncan predicted Yes (H$20 at 48%)
8 hours ago
fellcolor predicted No (H$1,000 at 50%)
1 day ago
simtack predicted No (H$100 at 49%)
1 week ago
aland predicted No (H$100 at 49%)
5 weeks ago
matthelm predicted No (H$300 at 49%)
more

Comments (5)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
Which courts? The Hague?
posted 18 weeks ago
  2 kruijs[Power User]
Hi curios,

I just heard about this in the news. This is a good question.

You could have worked it out a little better, though, so a user can tell what it's all about just at a glance.

Some suggestions:

Do a good question title: "the courts" in this case is quite ambiguous. Use the name of the court in question.

Do some background text (just copy/paste from a news source, with link to original article, you don't have to write it yourself), like:

"International Criminal Court prosecutors will seek the arrest of Sudan President Omar al-Beshir for genocide in Darfur (...) It would mark the first-ever bid by the ICC, based in The Hague, to charge a sitting head of state."
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jIxIo1qchLVoXw3eRs7XVu-PNONA

Good news source for such articles is http://news.google.com

Add some relevant tags to the question.
Really, "crime" ain't specific enough in this case. "beshir", would suffice, I think.

But: The question is correct as it is. No worries about that. And it is an important question, like I said, because it covers an important topic.

Thanks for creating those questions, curios!
posted 18 weeks ago
I approve of what I believe this question means, but I think the use of arrest in the question makes it unable to be settled. @curios I appreciate that your HD question seeks to draw attention to the genocide in Darfur, but I'm not sure "arrest" is operative in this case. Sudan rejects the court's jurisdiction (as does the US). This from FoxNews "The head of Sudan's Bar Association and ruling party stalwart, Fathi Khalil told The Associated Press that Sudan was not a member of the International Criminal Court and was not bound by Moreno-Ocampo's decision.", and this, "... but al-Bashir is unlikely to be sent to The Hague any time soon. Sudan rejects the court's jurisdiction ...".

Also, given Sudan's rejection of the ICC the initial odds are probably off. If this question gets voided, I encourage you to resubmit it with more accurate odds and a question more of the form, "Will Omar al-Bashir be brought to justice by the International Criminal Court for the Genocide in Darfur?"

I'm flagging to the CatEd, but not suspending it.

Regards,
AAA
posted 18 weeks ago
  4 curios
@kruijis and anaverageamerican i really do appreciate your help in forming questions although i joined in Jan i think i have only been on here since late April and have only trying to create questions about a fortnight or so thank you both
posted 18 weeks ago
  5 kruijs[Power User]
you're welcome ;-)



*hopingonedaysomeonewillmanagetowritemynamecorrectlyatfirstgo*
posted 18 weeks ago

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