Created Mon 14th Jul 12:10pm PDT by

jenniandboys [Admin]

All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 »

What will be the result of Monday's Gallup Presidential Poll?

Settled as Obama leads by 6,7 or 8 points

Obama up by 6
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108961/Gallup-Daily-Obama-leads-McCain-Six-Points.aspx

Background:

Still very little movement in the Gallup polls this week.

Note: Gallup polls are the result of a 3 day rolling average so the poll released on Monday will be based on surveys taken Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Forecast history, %

Zoom in

Settled

Obama leads by 9 points or more

Obama leads by 6,7 or 8 points

Obama leads by at least 3, 4 or 5 points

90%

Statistical Tie +/- 2 points

McCain leads by 3,4 or 5 points

McCain leads by 6,7 or 8 points

McCain leads by 9 points or more

Activity: H$63,683

Settled as Obama leads by 6,7 or 8 points on Mon 21st Jul 2:12pm PDT

Settlement details: http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx

posted near 1300 on Monday July 21.

If no poll is posted that day for some reason, will be the next released gallup daily poll.

Suspend date: Mon 21st Jul 9:30am PDT

Settlement date: Mon 21st Jul 2:12pm PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 21st Jul 9:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Obama leads by 9 points or more: 5%, Obama leads by 6,7 or 8 points: 20%, Obama leads by at least 3, 4 or 5 points: 40%, Statistical Tie +/- 2 points: 30%, McCain leads by 3,4 or 5 points: 3%, McCain leads by 6,7 or 8 points: 1%, McCain leads by 9 points or more: 1%

Action history:

Created Mon 14th Jul 12:10pm PDT by

jenniandboys [Admin]

Suspended Mon 21st Jul 9:30am PDT : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Mon 21st Jul 10:28am PDT by

jenniandboys [Admin]

: Obama +6

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108961/Gallup-Daily-Obama-leads-McCain-Six-Points.aspx

Settled as 'Obama leads by 6,7 or 8 points' Mon 21st Jul 2:12pm PDT by

tisha

: Obama up by 6
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108961/Gallup-Daily-Obama-leads-McCain-Six-Points.aspx

read less

Settlement details: http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx ... read all

Predictions (171)

171 predictions

6 weeks ago

bobdevine predicted Statistical Tie +/- 2 points (H$10 at 5%)

6 weeks ago

dan121377 predicted Obama leads by at least 3, 4 or 5 points (H$10,000 at 83%)

6 weeks ago

pitchedoutsideleg predicted Statistical Tie +/- 2 points (H$500 at 17%)

6 weeks ago

pwbk predicted Obama leads by at least 3, 4 or 5 points (H$50 at 70%)

6 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Admin]

predicted Obama leads by 6,7 or 8 points (H$100 at 15%)

Comments (5)

lucidstates

I love these Q's Jen :-D Keep em coming :-D

posted 7 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

I'll do my best! Glad I'm not the only one who enjoys them :)

posted 7 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

Friday: Obama +1
Thursday: Obama +2
Wednesday: Obama +3
Tuesday: Obama +4

If this trend keeps up, we could see our first lead change in a month and a half!

posted 6 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

Ouch! Only 5% with the right answer at Obama +6! Guess the foreign trip is having a bigger effect than expected. Hopefully we can all do better next week :)

posted 6 weeks ago

cognos [Power User]

Yes!!!

posted 6 weeks ago

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