Created Tue 15th Jul 10:47pm PDT by 
abbey
All questions » World » Europe » abbey 
Will Russia return the oil flow to the Czech Republic to full volume by the 1st of August?
Voided
Russia has cut the oil flow to the Czech Republic after the Czech's have agreed to place some of the U.S missle defence sheild in there country.
Clarification: To settle as "Yes", the oil flow at the end of July must be reported to be greater than or equal to the flow prior to Russia's action (in June 08). Will use figures released later this week by Czech government re: July oil flow.
Clarification: To settle as "Yes", the oil flow at the end of July must be reported to be greater than or equal to the flow prior to Russia's action (in June 08). Will use figures released later this week by Czech government re: July oil flow.
Voided
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Yes |
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No |
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Sat 23rd Aug 2:09pm PDT
Reason: This question is not able to be settled. The Czech figures from July are not forthcoming. There were reports of the volume being returned to full, and also of it still being 10% down as of Aug. 1. After considerable research, I'm afraid this must be voided as unsettle-able.
Reason: This question is not able to be settled. The Czech figures from July are not forthcoming. There were reports of the volume being returned to full, and also of it still being 10% down as of Aug. 1. After considerable research, I'm afraid this must be voided as unsettle-able.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Suspend date: Thu 31st Jul 10:59pm PDT
Initial likelihoods:
Yes: 40%
Action history:
Created Tue 15th Jul 10:47pm PDT by abbey
abbey
Suspended Thu 31st Jul 10:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 3rd Aug 4:35pm PDT by 
tarpash: This question can be settled, but I don't know what way it should go. This article is ambiguous:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessIndustry/idUKL145396220080802
Oil flow returned to "promised levels" but are still 15-20% below "requested levels." I'm not sure what constitutes "full volume" in the question. It still seems like the Czechs believe they are being short-changed on oil.
tarpash: This question can be settled, but I don't know what way it should go. This article is ambiguous:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessIndustry/idUKL145396220080802
Oil flow returned to "promised levels" but are still 15-20% below "requested levels." I'm not sure what constitutes "full volume" in the question. It still seems like the Czechs believe they are being short-changed on oil.
Settlement requested Mon 4th Aug 12:15am PDT by steez: Hi there. Found this report on the level of oil. I believe this settles the question, what do you think?
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/07/30/europe/czech.php
steez: Hi there. Found this report on the level of oil. I believe this settles the question, what do you think?
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/07/30/europe/czech.php
Settlement requested Mon 11th Aug 3:16pm PDT by tarpash: I move that this market should be voided due to a lack of reported details. The Czechs promised last week that we would have oil delivery figures by this week, and no figures have been reported.
The closest we've come:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25935013?__source=RSS*tag*&par=RSS
Reported before Aug 1, Unipetrol doesn't seem optimistic in saying: "The promise we have (from Russia) at the moment is not for the whole 100 percent. The indications suggest that the volume will be somewhat lower than the plan for August."
Second source: http://www.praguemonitor.com/en/397/czech_business/26585/
This report indicates that levels returned to normal in "early August."
I doubt there was ever one moment where oil supplies suddenly jumped from pre-conflict levels to post-conflict levels. Instead it seems Russia turned up the oil output gradually from July 31 onward, meaning that we (much less Unipetrol) have no clue as to when flows reached pre-July levels. There is not one simple time or date where oil levels jumped. We have no way to confirm oil flow reached "full volume" by August 1.
tarpash: I move that this market should be voided due to a lack of reported details. The Czechs promised last week that we would have oil delivery figures by this week, and no figures have been reported.
The closest we've come:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25935013?__source=RSS*tag*&par=RSS
Reported before Aug 1, Unipetrol doesn't seem optimistic in saying: "The promise we have (from Russia) at the moment is not for the whole 100 percent. The indications suggest that the volume will be somewhat lower than the plan for August."
Second source: http://www.praguemonitor.com/en/397/czech_business/26585/
This report indicates that levels returned to normal in "early August."
I doubt there was ever one moment where oil supplies suddenly jumped from pre-conflict levels to post-conflict levels. Instead it seems Russia turned up the oil output gradually from July 31 onward, meaning that we (much less Unipetrol) have no clue as to when flows reached pre-July levels. There is not one simple time or date where oil levels jumped. We have no way to confirm oil flow reached "full volume" by August 1.
Voided Sat 23rd Aug 2:09pm PDT by 
infernalmachine![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: This question is not able to be settled. The Czech figures from July are not forthcoming. There were reports of the volume being returned to full, and also of it still being 10% down as of Aug. 1. After considerable research, I'm afraid this must be voided as unsettle-able.
infernalmachine: This question is not able to be settled. The Czech figures from July are not forthcoming. There were reports of the volume being returned to full, and also of it still being 10% down as of Aug. 1. After considerable research, I'm afraid this must be voided as unsettle-able.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all
Predictions (53)
53 predictions
finalvictory
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predicted No (H$9,900 at 95%)
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fish
bookie
flyer
kruijsComments (7)
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This article makes it seem like levels are still 15-20% below what they normally would be, even though they have inceased to contracted levels. I would say the market should be settled as "NO" but then again, I have a lot of $H riding on it.
So we wait. More on what "full volume" means coming soon.
were reduced or a higher output flow.
This basically explains why the inability to settle this yet. If no news within a week, I will have to void this as indeterminable.
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