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How Many iPhones Will Apple Sell In 2008?

Current forecast: 12 million or more (81% chance35%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is 12 million or more with a probability of 81% (up 35% in last 1 day)

Steve Jobs has announced his intention to sell 10 million iPhones this year and we believe he has already sold 4 million in the first half of the year and an addition 1 million since the 3g iPhone launched. (More background at Read Write Web)

Clarification: This question will follow standard rounding rules, so if exactly 10.5 million are sold it will settle as 11 million.
 
Forecast history, %
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8 million or less
3%
9 million
3%
10 million
6%
11 million
8%
12 million or more
81%
Activity: H$34,552
Question suspends in 11 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: Question will be settled to the nearest million

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (11 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 8 million or less: 2%, 9 million: 8%, 10 million: 30%, 11 million: 40%, 12 million or more: 20%

Action history:

All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: Question will be settled to the nearest million... read all

 

Predictions (87)

87 predictions

4 days ago
rogerkni predicted 12 million or more (H$1,000 at 78%)
5 days ago
rogerkni predicted 12 million or more (H$1,000 at 67%)
5 days ago
leslina predicted 11 million (H$50 at 16%)
5 days ago
rogerkni predicted 12 million or more (H$1,500 at 59%)
5 days ago
rogerkni predicted 12 million or more (H$1,000 at 47%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 rogerkni
Here's an unofficial sales estimate, just posted on Seeking Alpha, titled "iPhone Sales Drastically Surpass Q4 Consensus: Apple Reaches 10m Goal."
It's at: http://seekingalpha.com/article/98619-iphone-sales-drastically-surpass-q4-consensus-apple-reaches-10m-goal
posted 6 days ago
  2 rogerkni
Note: Apple's fiscal fourth quarter corresponds to the calendar's third quarter. Therefore, achieving 10M sales in Apple's Q4 (if true) means it will surely sell 12M by the end of 2008.
posted 5 days ago

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