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Will a daily American newspaper (circulation 50k+) fold this year?

Settled as Yes

The New York Sun will publish its final edition Tuesday, 9/29.

News was released and reported on by at least 7:05 PM EDT as reported by Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiZ6.bCEWXy0&refer=home

Background:

The newspaper industry is going through huge turmoil as it loses audience, ad revenue, and market value and the trajectory downward is accelerating. Will a paper -- which I've defined as one of size at 50,000+ daily circulation -- fold this year?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
89%
No
11%
Activity: H$59,405
Settled as Yes on Tue 30th Sep 3:40am PDT

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) Settlement date: Tue 30th Sep 3:40am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 29th Sep 2:05pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Thu 17th Jul 9:49am PDT by buzzmachine
Suspended Mon 29th Sep 10:27pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Mon 29th Sep 10:27pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Winning prediction = "Yes"

"The New York Sun" ceased publication today, September 30, 2008.

<http://www.nysun.com/>

"...It is my duty to report today that Ira Stoll and I and our partners have concluded that the Sun will cease publication. Our last number will be the issue dated September 30, the first day of Rosh Hashanah. I want you to know that Ira and I, and our partners, explored every possible way to avoid having to cease publication.

"The New York Sun" was a New York City Daily with 113,300 Print Cume Manhattan Readership

<http://www.nysun.com/advertising/2008PrintMediaKit.pdf>

Prediction cut-off: 11:52PM EDT on September 29, 2008. (market suspended)
Settled as 'Yes' Tue 30th Sep 3:30am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Announced that the New York Sun would cease publication with their 9/30/08 issue, Announcement made at 11:52 PM on 9/29



http://www.nysun.com/>

"...It is my duty to report today that Ira Stoll and I and our partners have concluded that the Sun will cease publication. Our last number will be the issue dated September 30, the first day of Rosh Hashanah. I want you to know that Ira and I, and our partners, explored every possible way to avoid having to cease publication.
Previous action withdrawn Tue 30th Sep 3:37am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Incorrect settlement time...there were earlier reports of the Sun's closing...will resettle at the correct time.
Settled as 'Yes' Tue 30th Sep 3:40am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: The New York Sun will publish its final edition Tuesday, 9/29.

News was released and reported on by at least 7:05 PM EDT as reported by Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiZ6.bCEWXy0&refer=home

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) Settlement date: Tue 30th Sep 3:40am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 29th Sep 2:05pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (129)

129 predictions

7 weeks ago
jensir predicted Yes (H$50 at 78%)
7 weeks ago
gtown predicted No (H$10 at 22%)
8 weeks ago
joaoxxx predicted No (H$50 at 25%)
8 weeks ago
hippyboomer predicted No (H$100 at 25%)

Comments (11)

  1 gregmatta
Does bought count as fold?
posted 18 weeks ago
I interpret the question as meaning "stops publishing on paper." This would not preclude continuing to publish as a purely digital edition, though I suppose its up to Jeff to clarify, as it's his question.

posted 18 weeks ago
@buzzmachine,

All newspapers fold ... that's how the expression, "below the fold", originated. Just kidding 8^). Could you clarify whether you mean ceases to operate, or receivership/bankruptcy? IMO, "fold" would mean ceases operation.

Regards,
AAA
posted 18 weeks ago
  4 skipper[Power User]
I think he means it stops distributing physical newspapers
posted 18 weeks ago
I would concur with Skipper on this one. Let me confirm with Jeff.
posted 18 weeks ago
  6 gobbergo
I voted No, but you won't see me putting any real money on that.
posted 18 weeks ago
  7 coolkraft
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080829/ap_on_hi_te/newspapers_in_decline;_ylt=AnNIij_krPh_YVTWhMGU0rSs0NUE
posted 11 weeks ago
  8 tisha[Admin]
@coolkraft - you are always on top of updating markets with relevant links!
posted 11 weeks ago
  9 bayoubear[Admin]
As Tisha said...great link...timely info, but still looks like the larger papers are doing everything possible to stay afloat...when you're looking at the possibility of a paper with a circulation of 50,000 or more shutting down, that's quite a step...I think they'll find a way to hold on....
posted 11 weeks ago
  10 dieseldog
the settlement link said 113,000 readers in NY. if you can't stay in business with that many customers your not very business savy imho.
posted 7 weeks ago
No kidding. Still thats the same deal with that one power company that the Oracle of Omaha bought. Plus finding a company that wants to advertise through a failing medium is a hard thing to do.
posted 7 weeks ago

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