Created Thu 17th Jul 2008 8:49am PST by

buzzmachine Level 3, Apprentice (H$1,177)

Will a daily American newspaper (circulation 50k+) fold this year?

Settled as Yes

The New York Sun will publish its final edition Tuesday, 9/29.

News was released and reported on by at least 7:05 PM EDT as reported by Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiZ6.bCEWXy0&refer=home

Background:

Background: The newspaper industry is going through huge turmoil as it loses audience, ad revenue, and market value and the trajectory downward is accelerating. Will a paper -- which I've defined as one of size at 50,000+ daily circulation -- fold this year?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

89%

11%

Settled as Yes on Tue 30th Sep 2008 2:40am PST

Activity: H$59,405
Predictions: 129
Comments: 11

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 30th Sep 2008 2:40am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 29th Sep 2008 1:05pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Thu 17th Jul 2008 8:49am PST by

buzzmachine Level 3, Apprentice (H$1,177)

Suspended Mon 29th Sep 2008 9:27pm PST by

newswrangler [Power User]

: Suspended pending settlement

Settlement requested Mon 29th Sep 2008 9:27pm PST by

newswrangler [Power User]

: Winning prediction = "Yes"

"The New York Sun" ceased publication today, September 30, 2008.

<http://www.nysun.com/>

"...It is my duty to report today that Ira Stoll and I and our partners have concluded that the Sun will cease publication. Our last number will be the issue dated September 30, the first day of Rosh Hashanah. I want you to know that Ira and I, and our partners, explored every possible way to avoid having to cease publication.

"The New York Sun" was a New York City Daily with 113,300 Print Cume Manhattan Readership

<http://www.nysun.com/advertising/2008PrintMediaKit.pdf>

Prediction cut-off: 11:52PM EDT on September 29, 2008. (market suspended)

Settled as 'Yes' Tue 30th Sep 2008 2:30am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Announced that the New York Sun would cease publication with their 9/30/08 issue, Announcement made at 11:52 PM on 9/29

http://www.nysun.com/>

"...It is my duty to report today that Ira Stoll and I and our partners have concluded that the Sun will cease publication. Our last number will be the issue dated September 30, the first day of Rosh Hashanah. I want you to know that Ira and I, and our partners, explored every possible way to avoid having to cease publication.

Previous action withdrawn Tue 30th Sep 2008 2:37am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Incorrect settlement time...there were earlier reports of the Sun's closing...will resettle at the correct time.

Settled as 'Yes' Tue 30th Sep 2008 2:40am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: The New York Sun will publish its final edition Tuesday, 9/29.

News was released and reported on by at least 7:05 PM EDT as reported by Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiZ6.bCEWXy0&refer=home

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Predictions (129)

39 weeks ago

jensir Level 10, Genius (H$10,624)

predicted Yes (H$50 at 78%)

39 weeks ago

gtown

predicted No (H$10 at 22%)

40 weeks ago

joaoxxx Level 14, Prophet (H$101,550)

predicted No (H$50 at 25%)

40 weeks ago

hippyboomer Level 14, Prophet (H$104,449)

predicted No (H$100 at 25%)

41 weeks ago

php_ini Level 12, Guru (H$25,800)

predicted Yes (H$20 at 60%)

Comments (11)

gregmatta Level 16, Oracle (H$673,381)

Does bought count as fold?

posted 50 weeks ago

timwindsor Level 1, Newbie (H$1,000)

I interpret the question as meaning "stops publishing on paper." This would not preclude continuing to publish as a purely digital edition, though I suppose its up to Jeff to clarify, as it's his question.

posted 50 weeks ago

anaverageamerican Level 13, Psychic (H$73,546)

@buzzmachine,

All newspapers fold ... that's how the expression, "below the fold", originated. Just kidding 8^). Could you clarify whether you mean ceases to operate, or receivership/bankruptcy? IMO, "fold" would mean ceases operation.

Regards,
AAA

posted 50 weeks ago

skipper Level 1, Newbie (H$120)

I think he means it stops distributing physical newspapers

posted 50 weeks ago

nigeleccles [Admin]

I would concur with Skipper on this one. Let me confirm with Jeff.

posted 50 weeks ago

gobbergo Level 8, Super-Pro (H$6,523)

I voted No, but you won't see me putting any real money on that.

posted 50 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$100,950)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080829/ap_on_hi_te/newspapers_in_decline;_ylt=AnNIij_krPh_YVTWhMGU0rSs0NUE

posted 43 weeks ago

tisha

@coolkraft - you are always on top of updating markets with relevant links!

posted 43 weeks ago

bayoubear [Admin]

As Tisha said...great link...timely info, but still looks like the larger papers are doing everything possible to stay afloat...when you're looking at the possibility of a paper with a circulation of 50,000 or more shutting down, that's quite a step...I think they'll find a way to hold on....

posted 43 weeks ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$527,586)

the settlement link said 113,000 readers in NY. if you can't stay in business with that many customers your not very business savy imho.

posted 39 weeks ago

dragonfangxl Level 7, Pro (H$3,428)

No kidding. Still thats the same deal with that one power company that the Oracle of Omaha bought. Plus finding a company that wants to advertise through a failing medium is a hard thing to do.

posted 39 weeks ago

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