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Will a daily American newspaper (circulation 50k+) fold this year?

Current forecast: 65% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 65% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

The newspaper industry is going through huge turmoil as it loses audience, ad revenue, and market value and the trajectory downward is accelerating. Will a paper -- which I've defined as one of size at 50,000+ daily circulation -- fold this year?
 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
65%
No
35%
Activity: H$31,164
Question suspends in 16 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (16 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Thu 17th Jul 9:49am PDT by buzzmachine
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (97)

97 predictions

1 day ago
fbias predicted Yes (H$100 at 65%)
4 days ago
newswrangler[Power User] predicted No (H$100 at 35%)
4 days ago
bayoubear[Admin] predicted No (H$500 at 34%)
4 days ago
onedave predicted Yes (H$20 at 67%)
4 days ago
coolkraft predicted Yes (H$250 at 67%)
more

Comments (9)

  1 gregmatta
Does bought count as fold?
posted 7 weeks ago
I interpret the question as meaning "stops publishing on paper." This would not preclude continuing to publish as a purely digital edition, though I suppose its up to Jeff to clarify, as it's his question.

posted 7 weeks ago
@buzzmachine,

All newspapers fold ... that's how the expression, "below the fold", originated. Just kidding 8^). Could you clarify whether you mean ceases to operate, or receivership/bankruptcy? IMO, "fold" would mean ceases operation.

Regards,
AAA
posted 7 weeks ago
  4 skipper[Power User]
I think he means it stops distributing physical newspapers
posted 7 weeks ago
I would concur with Skipper on this one. Let me confirm with Jeff.
posted 7 weeks ago
  6 gobbergo
I voted No, but you won't see me putting any real money on that.
posted 6 weeks ago
  7 coolkraft
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080829/ap_on_hi_te/newspapers_in_decline;_ylt=AnNIij_krPh_YVTWhMGU0rSs0NUE
posted 4 days ago
  8 tisha[Admin]
@coolkraft - you are always on top of updating markets with relevant links!
posted 4 days ago
  9 bayoubear[Admin]
As Tisha said...great link...timely info, but still looks like the larger papers are doing everything possible to stay afloat...when you're looking at the possibility of a paper with a circulation of 50,000 or more shutting down, that's quite a step...I think they'll find a way to hold on....
posted 4 days ago

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