Created Thu 17th Jul 12:29pm PDT by

onedave [Power User]

All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 »

How well will Hubdub predict the winner of the 2008 Presidential Election?

Current forecast: Hubdub winner's total higher by 10% to < 20% (34% chance

)

At the following web site, http://www.hubdub.com/tag/election_08_by_state, Hubdubbers can make predictions in the Hubdub election for each state. Just like in the US election, the candidate who has the highest percentage wins that state's electoral vote total.

In case of an undecided state in the Hubdub election, the electoral votes will be split evenly between McCain and Obama. The market will be settled based on the difference in electoral votes earned by the winner of the Hubdub elections.

Current results of the Hubdub election are: Obama 304, McCain 201, Undecided 33. If results stay the same, the market will be settled based on Obama's electoral vote total of 320.5. Higher or lower refers to how much the US electoral vote total is higher or lower than the Hubdub electoral vote total.

Forecast history, %

Zoom in

Make your prediction!

Hubdub winner's total higher by < 10%

34%

Hubdub winner's total higher by 10% to < 20%

34%

Hubdub winner's total higher by 20% or more

Hubdub winner's total lower by < 10%

16%

Hubdub winner's total lower by 10% to < 20%

Hubdub winner's total lower by 20% or more

Hubdub winner's total = US election total

Activity: H$9,564

Question suspends in 3 weeks

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source and determined by Hubdub administrators.

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 9pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Hubdub winner's total higher by < 10%: 30%, Hubdub winner's total higher by 10% to < 20%: 15%, Hubdub winner's total higher by 20% or more: 4%, Hubdub winner's total lower by < 10%: 30%, Hubdub winner's total lower by 10% to < 20%: 15%, Hubdub winner's total lower by 20% or more: 4%, Hubdub winner's total = US election total: 2%

Action history:

Created Thu 17th Jul 12:29pm PDT by

onedave [Power User]

read less

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source and determined by Hubdub administrators.... read all

Get widget!New!

Predictions (48)

48 predictions

8 hours ago

ianochaye predicted Hubdub winner's total higher by 10% to < 20% (H$70 at 34%)

21 hours ago

tomtom predicted Hubdub winner's total higher by < 10% (H$200 at 33%)

1 day ago

pitchedoutsideleg predicted Hubdub winner's total higher by 10% to < 20% (H$1,000 at 27%)

1 day ago

pitchedoutsideleg predicted Hubdub winner's total higher by 20% or more (H$100 at 3%)

1 week ago

whatsup predicted Hubdub winner's total higher by < 10% (H$50 at 39%)

Comments (6)

valornhonor [Power User]

@ ondave

What is the margin to settle for yes on the final option of Hubdub winner's total = US election total? > or < 1% point? If so, there could be an apparent overlap with options # 1, and # 4.

posted 11 weeks ago

tisha

I've got money on both 10% above and 10% below, but the outcome that would thrill me the most is if the Hubdub winner's total = US election total !!

posted 11 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

@onedave - I'm really glad you made this market! Great job.

posted 11 weeks ago

onedave [Power User]

@valornhonor

To settle as the last option, there is no margin. We may need to rework this market if the Hubdub winner gets that extra half-vote.

@ admins

Will you be able to determine all the undecided Hubdub races? If not, we may need to adjust the last option to +/- 0.5 electoral votes.

posted 11 weeks ago

chris

The question is fine as it stands. If we have undecided states but are out by half an electoral college vote then we are still out.

The main question is what will count as undecided at the nail. At the moment I think it's a margin of less than 2% which paints a state as undecided, but we may well narrow that down towards 0 on the night itself.

Great question either way :)

posted 11 weeks ago