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What will be the winning time of The Last Marathon?

Current forecast: 3:00:00 to 3:04:59h (27% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is 3:00:00 to 3:04:59h with a probability of 27% (unchanged in last 1 day)

The 10th Antarctica Marathon & Half-Marathon is scheduled for March 10, 2009.

You will come face to face with icebergs, penguins, seals and whales while exploring the most pristine corner of the planet.

Top 10 of 2008:

Last name First Name Time Sex Country
Celinski Robert 3:09:43 M Poland
Faralla Filippo 3:30:52 M South Africa
Smith David 3:41:11 M UK
Hibbs Stephen 3:56:23 M USA
Llopart Moragas Joan 3:58:41 M Spain
Bolt Jeremy 4:07:08 M USA
Duff Bryce 4:12:12 M UK
Krips Timothy 4:16:41 M USA
Schilder Catharina 4:21:42 F Netherlands
Schilder Maria 4:21:42 F Netherlands


http://www.marathontour.com/antarctica/index.shtml


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Make your prediction!

under 2:45:00h
3%
2:45:00 to 2:54:59h
8%
2:55:00 to 2:59:59h
23%
3:00:00 to 3:04:59h
27%
3:05:00 to 3:14:59h
22%
3:15:00 to 3:29:59h
12%
3:30:00h or longer
6%
Activity: H$4,855
Question suspends in 15 weeks

Suspend date: Mon 9th Mar 2009 8:59am PDT (15 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: under 2:45:00h: 5%, 2:45:00 to 2:54:59h: 10%, 2:55:00 to 2:59:59h: 20%, 3:00:00 to 3:04:59h: 30%, 3:05:00 to 3:14:59h: 20%, 3:15:00 to 3:29:59h: 10%, 3:30:00h or longer: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 17th Jul 1:11pm PDT by kruijs[Power User]

Suspend date: Mon 9th Mar 2009 8:59am PDT (15 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (69)

69 predictions

20 hours ago
gtown predicted 3:30:00h or longer (H$20 at 6%)
1 week ago
supi predicted 3:30:00h or longer (H$50 at 5%)
1 week ago
supi predicted 3:05:00 to 3:14:59h (H$20 at 22%)
1 week ago
supi predicted 3:15:00 to 3:29:59h (H$20 at 12%)
1 week ago
emmittsdaman predicted 3:30:00h or longer (H$20 at 5%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 tomg[Admin]
These guys are crazy!
posted 18 weeks ago

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