Will Dark Knight make more $ in July than donations to Obama campaign Jan-Jul 2008?

This may actually be rather close, here's why.

Following are the fundraising amounts, by month and total for Senator Obama so far in 2008. Caveat...I have not yet found a precise amount raised for June. When I find the EXACT amount I will add an update to this comment string:

Jan-08 $36,774,374 http://www.cfinst.org/president/pdf/Pres08_M2_Table1.pdf
Feb-08 $56,766,038 http://www.cfinst.org/president/pdf/Pres08_M3_Table1.pdf
Mar-08 $42,832,121 http://www.cfinst.org/president/pdf/Pres08_M4_Table1.pdf
Apr-08 $31,922,905 http://www.cfinst.org/president/pdf/Pres08_M5_Table1.pdf
May-08 $23,348,774 http://www.cfinst.org/president/pdf/Pres08_M6_Table1.pdf
Jun-08 $52,000,000 http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=92642061&ft=1&f=1001

Total $243,644,212 = Est. YTD Total, Jan through June 2008 Obama campaign

Here are current domestic box office receipts for (current) Top 5 Films in 2008:

1 2-May-08 Iron Man $313,547,131
2 22-May-08 Indy Jones…Crystal Skull $310,760,256
3 6-Jun-08 Kung Fu Panda $202,838,838
4 2-Jul-08 Hancock $167,923,822
5 27-Jun-08 WALL-E $165,635,798

Most studios have conceded late July to The Dark Knight and have wisely stepped aside rather than to challenge this juggernaut. Probably the only movie yet to be released in July that could conceivably divert some business would be X-Files due out on 7/25, some movie goers will opt for X-files rather than to see The Dark Knight for a THIRD time. ;)

So, do you anticipate that the torrid pace of the Obama fundraising machine will continue during July and eclipse the likely largest money making film of 2008 or do you think that The Dark Knight will do more in three weeks than Obama did in seven months??

Happy Wagering!

Wow! Was that a singly bid? $5K HD!

Nigel, you watchin?

Yup... a singly bid by me... Entertainment is one of my weaker categories... so this HD$ 5K might change that

Some describe Obama as messiah and the Joker as devil.... scary, scary, I'm wagering evil prevails (or at least the lesser of the two evils)

Okay so we are giving Dark Knight 14 days of grosses versus the 7 months of Obama campaigning. Well if my math is close, Iron Man did 200 million in first 14 days, Indiana Jones did 225 in first 14 days. Figuring Obama raises just 30 million in July that would push total to 275, so we are expecting Dark Knight to do 275 in first 14 days.

Singly, sheesh, never fails, I'm so careful to proof a long discourse on my market and then muff a simple word. Anyway, thnx for the bid, I think this may be an interesting one to watch, it's a crap shoot for what Senator Obama may do in July, I thought that June's velocity might have cooled a bit but is was his 2nd best month ever. I know The Black Knight is selling like crazy but it seems incredible that it could eclipse Senator Obama's year to date fundraising!

If Dark Knight does 150 first week and 100 second, that still isn't enough. No holidays occuring. I am dumping large wagers on this.

Hey Fingers looks like me and you are on opposite sides of this one.

OOOOOPPPSSS!!! I overlooked the "Jan-Jul" in the title question... my bad!

Oh well, looks like Entertainment will remain one of my weaker categories

There... I fixed it... hedged my bets with HD$5K on YES and NO :-D

btw...

Breaking News: Dark Knight Earns Huge $18.489 Million at Midnight Screenings... http://www.the-numbers.com/ that's just from Thursday, The Dark Knight has the widest opening in movie history, i.e. most number of screens.

$84,900,000.00 for the first 24 hours, (midnight Thursday through Friday)... let's see, it's noon in the middle of the US now, yep, The Dark Knight has now makde about as much as Obama raised in the months of January and February already, just in the first 36 hours. Not a bad start.

I'm weak in the Entertainment Category as well. $H3k says the joker rakes it in.

Your a good salesman valornhonor. Need a job? Call me.

Alright all you Obama fans, you gonna let the Joker push you around like this?

For fun lets say that Batman does 160. Then somehow does 100 million next weekend. That is 260. In order to win this question the outcome is going to have to be more than 275 at minimum, I would probably 300 by the time July fundraising comes out. So now is a great time for those who think Obama wins to get in at great odds.

@ destry

I admire your enthusiasm.... in your scenario Obama would need to drive approx $57M in July, which would be his highest monthly take of the year, possible certainly, but you have to wonder, at some point, how many times you can keep going back to the well, or if some donors may begin to think that they can't keep donating perpetually. In the mean time The Dark Knight continues it's sold out screenings, on a record number of theatres, all over the country. Should be interesting to track this horse race!

Q. for the HD addicts out there, anyone know what market has crossed the 50% threshold the most times that had a minimum settlement of $100K in wagers? This market may be one of the most volatile with 'lead changes' that I've witnessed yet. I launched it @ 50%, it initially dropped below, then crossed 50% on the way up, and now may cross 50% again on the way down, and could conceivably cross it again going up later this week.

Anyone know?

One thing to remember about fundraising is that there is a large amount of Hillary supporters that might donate for Obama for first time in July.
With movies they follow a traditional line of growth, there is only a certain amount of movie dollars out there.

FYI

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D921LBQO0&show_article=1&catnum=0

Looks like Dark Knight is about 155 for weekend.

50% crossed again!

Just sent my donation to Obama and I'm not going to see Dark Knight until August. That should really change the numbers.

Well if it comes down to difference of $10 bucks we can credit you for that.

There were also a solid two weeks in July where it was believed that Obama had raised only somewhere around 30million -- I'm guessing that energized a lot of voters to donate. I think he's going to have a pretty good month...

This market has now crossed the 50% threshold for a fifth time! Amazing!

...and it's being Dugg!

so Lesley... do I win the prize for large market crossing 50% most times? Looking at the graph carefully it looks like now 6 or 7 times!

Okay Valor, so what's the answer to your trivia question? I'm guessing it was one of the Hillary questions.

I may switch my position, just to see how long it takes you to catch the next 50% threshold change!

And...just to make things fair, I will go see the movie this weekend and hold on to the Obama donation in order to offset gregmatta's move! lol

I think that honor has to go to Skipper: http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_the_no_option_be_a_greater_percentage_than_the_yes_option_at_suspend_date_3126/view

@ mrperfkt,

Thanks for your gracious market manipulation offer, ha ha, I think Jen is right, check out that mkt above, it stayed right around 50% the entire time!!!

almost 200 million
http://www.reuters.com/article/entertainmentNews/idUSN1935661120080722?feedType=RSS&feedName=entertainmentNews&rpc=22&sp=true

aha...Dark Knight now needs to keep doing well and Obama's donations must drop off...damn hard bet to make

@ coolkraft...

C'mon, why are you being so the-glass-is-only-half-full-ish? Look at it this way, The Dark Knight has already pushed > $199.6M between Thursday night and Sundaynot even 100 hours of release, Senator Obama had not raised this much until approx. the first week in JUNE, it was not until sometime during June that he had raised more than $200 million. The Dark Knight still has 10 days to rake in money without any big ticket films getting in it's way, I maintain that this will be a close finish.

Hey Jenni,

Looking to cross 50% again, I went back and checked Skipper's market you mentioned, it settled under $70K, this one is about to double that and it doesn't close for another week!

Check out this stat from DIGG, nearly 2/3rds of polled movie goers plan to see The Dark Knight **AT LEAST TWICE** in theatres!

http://www.slashfilm.com/2008/07/21/most-dark-knight-moviegoers-plan-to-see-film-again/

My friends and I are going to try and see this film in IMAX and guess what? It was SOLD OUT 2 weeks in advance AND we cannot get into the theater until MONDAY next week it looks like! They are suggesting a 1-2 week advance purchase for IMAX tickets here in Seattle. This film is freakin' gigantic!!!

Thursday night through Monday, The Dark Knight has moved $182,904,796... or about the same amount that Senator Obama raised Jan + Feb + Mar + Apr + May through Memorial Day weekend.

I'm gaming this question by donating to Obama AND waiting until August to see the film.....

@ theonecalledmichael

Finally, a Hubdub user admits to gaming a question. LOL

Okay so The Dark Knight has crosses $222,150,806 IN JUST 6 DAYS!!! ... I am going to go see this film with some 7 other friends from Mars Hill Church in Seattle (Mark Driscoll, NOT Rob "Heretic" Bell, LOL) and we cannot get in Friday either! Mannnn, IMAX is sold out till next Monday, and so we are scrambling for Mondays tickets, LOL ... THIS FILM IS HUGE!!!!!!!!!! ... P.S. Obama sucketh!! LOL ... That guy is a snake and he is very dangerous for our nation ...... No wait, can puppets be any more dangerous then say a Tickle Me Elmo? Hmmmmmmm, the mind ponders!?!?! I guess Obama or any other politician is good for something.............. I just can't figure what just yet :-P ... All politicians suck :-D

WSJ did a fascinating piece about similarities between TDK movie and Bush administration... Here's a link from LA Times that picked up the story: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/presidentbush/2008/07/bush-as-batman.html

300 mil

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/amazing-dark-knight-run-continues-stepbrothers-big-x-files-bombs/

$314 million and STILL counting for BATMAN!!!

Looks like Batman will have topped $350 million with the LAST day of July's totals due in tomorrow afternoon ... Obama no way raised this much!!

obama would have to raise a boat load for sure. knew i shouldn't bet on him :O(

Anticipating an announcement from the Obama camp soon about July #'s, the June figures came out on July 21st. Dark Knight in July earned $351,086,846 per www.the-numbers.com Obama would have needed to raise > $116,442,634 in July to surpass The Dark Knight which seems very unlikely, but an official result should be known soon. Thank you to everyone that wagered on this market that went from 50% down to 21% crossed 50% many times before settling on The Dark Knight as the anticipated 'winner'.

This might be able to be settled now. Obama raised $51 million according to yahoo. http://news.yahoo.com/story/ap/20080816/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_money;_ylt=AgB23k5WG12XDWMU3f7ZCYms0NUE