
Will Dark Knight make more $ in July than donations to Obama campaign Jan-Jul 2008?
Obama's 51 million in July still leaves his year to date total below Dark Knight's impressive 351k.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/16/obama-raises-51-million-in-july/
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=darkknight.htm
Background:>
Market is looking to determine whether The Dark Knight moves more money (box office receipts as tracked by www.the-numbers.com), than the Obama campaign raises year to date, January through July 2008.
Please refer to the first comment below for detailed background information, Obama fundraising figures through June and the cumulative box office for the (current) five biggest movie hits so far this year.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source, such as the sources sited for my stats on Senator Obama, and www.the-numbers.com for the receipt totals for The Dark Knight for the month of July.
Settled
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Yes |
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No |
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Suspend date: Sat 2nd Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 16th Aug 2:12pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 2nd Aug 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%
Action history:
http://news.yahoo.com/story/ap/20080816/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_money;_ylt=AgB23k5WG12XDWMU3f7ZCYms0NUE
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/16/obama-raises-51-million-in-july/
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=darkknight.htm
Suspend date: Sat 2nd Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 16th Aug 2:12pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 2nd Aug 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (281)
281 predictions
Comments (48)
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162 settled, 114 voided




This may actually be rather close, here's why.
Following are the fundraising amounts, by month and total for Senator Obama so far in 2008. Caveat...I have not yet found a precise amount raised for June. When I find the EXACT amount I will add an update to this comment string:
Jan-08 $36,774,374 http://www.cfinst.org/president/pdf/Pres08_M2_Table1.pdf
Feb-08 $56,766,038 http://www.cfinst.org/president/pdf/Pres08_M3_Table1.pdf
Mar-08 $42,832,121 http://www.cfinst.org/president/pdf/Pres08_M4_Table1.pdf
Apr-08 $31,922,905 http://www.cfinst.org/president/pdf/Pres08_M5_Table1.pdf
May-08 $23,348,774 http://www.cfinst.org/president/pdf/Pres08_M6_Table1.pdf
Jun-08 $52,000,000 http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=92642061&ft=1&f=1001
Total $243,644,212 = Est. YTD Total, Jan through June 2008 Obama campaign
Here are current domestic box office receipts for (current) Top 5 Films in 2008:
1 2-May-08 Iron Man $313,547,131
2 22-May-08 Indy Jones…Crystal Skull $310,760,256
3 6-Jun-08 Kung Fu Panda $202,838,838
4 2-Jul-08 Hancock $167,923,822
5 27-Jun-08 WALL-E $165,635,798
Most studios have conceded late July to The Dark Knight and have wisely stepped aside rather than to challenge this juggernaut. Probably the only movie yet to be released in July that could conceivably divert some business would be X-Files due out on 7/25, some movie goers will opt for X-files rather than to see The Dark Knight for a THIRD time. ;)
So, do you anticipate that the torrid pace of the Obama fundraising machine will continue during July and eclipse the likely largest money making film of 2008 or do you think that The Dark Knight will do more in three weeks than Obama did in seven months??
Happy Wagering!
Nigel, you watchin?
Oh well, looks like Entertainment will remain one of my weaker categories
Breaking News: Dark Knight Earns Huge $18.489 Million at Midnight Screenings... http://www.the-numbers.com/ that's just from Thursday, The Dark Knight has the widest opening in movie history, i.e. most number of screens.
I admire your enthusiasm.... in your scenario Obama would need to drive approx $57M in July, which would be his highest monthly take of the year, possible certainly, but you have to wonder, at some point, how many times you can keep going back to the well, or if some donors may begin to think that they can't keep donating perpetually. In the mean time The Dark Knight continues it's sold out screenings, on a record number of theatres, all over the country. Should be interesting to track this horse race!
Anyone know?
With movies they follow a traditional line of growth, there is only a certain amount of movie dollars out there.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D921LBQO0&show_article=1&catnum=0
I may switch my position, just to see how long it takes you to catch the next 50% threshold change!
And...just to make things fair, I will go see the movie this weekend and hold on to the Obama donation in order to offset gregmatta's move! lol
Thanks for your gracious market manipulation offer, ha ha, I think Jen is right, check out that mkt above, it stayed right around 50% the entire time!!!
http://www.reuters.com/article/entertainmentNews/idUSN1935661120080722?feedType=RSS&feedName=entertainmentNews&rpc=22&sp=true
C'mon, why are you being so the-glass-is-only-half-full-ish? Look at it this way, The Dark Knight has already pushed > $199.6M between Thursday night and Sundaynot even 100 hours of release, Senator Obama had not raised this much until approx. the first week in JUNE, it was not until sometime during June that he had raised more than $200 million. The Dark Knight still has 10 days to rake in money without any big ticket films getting in it's way, I maintain that this will be a close finish.
Looking to cross 50% again, I went back and checked Skipper's market you mentioned, it settled under $70K, this one is about to double that and it doesn't close for another week!
http://www.slashfilm.com/2008/07/21/most-dark-knight-moviegoers-plan-to-see-film-again/
Finally, a Hubdub user admits to gaming a question. LOL
http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/amazing-dark-knight-run-continues-stepbrothers-big-x-files-bombs/
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