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Will Heath Ledger win any major film award in the next year?

Current forecast: 66% chance 2%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 66% likely to happen (down 2% in last 1 day)

'Any major film award' is defined as: an academy award, golden globe, BAFTA, or Screen Actor's Guild Award ONLY.

Heath Ledger's last role as an actor was as the joker in Dark Knight. Many critics have claimed that Ledger's remarkable, villainous portrayal could earn him an Oscar award or nomination. If so, on January 22 - the one year anniversary of his death - he would be only the 7th actor to receive a posthumous nomination.

Please see our other Heath Ledger Oscars markets also
Will Heath Ledger get an Oscar nomination?
Will Heath Ledger win an Oscar?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
66%
No
34%
Activity: H$25,704
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sat 19th Jul 6:01am PDT by curios
Suspended Sat 19th Jul 9:33am PDT by tisha[Admin]: editing details
Unsuspended Sat 19th Jul 11:56am PDT by tisha[Admin]

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (90)

90 predictions

3 days ago
quorny predicted No (H$500 at 33%)
1 week ago
vex_ predicted No (H$20 at 32%)
1 week ago
egrant predicted Yes (H$100 at 68%)
1 week ago
kate1 predicted Yes (H$50 at 68%)
1 week ago
lima predicted Yes (H$50 at 68%)
more

Comments (11)

This market has been re-opened.

The market has been edited (by a Category Editor) to include a definition:
'Any major film award' is defined as: an academy award, golden globe, BAFTA, or Screen Actor's Guild Award ONLY.
posted 17 weeks ago
I notice the huge spike upwards after this movie came out in theaters. He's getting an oscar for sure i think.
posted 17 weeks ago
  3 curios
that is not what i meant it was any awards and no one without my permission has the rights in a democracy to alter it
posted 17 weeks ago
@curios - This was just an attempt to make sure that this question stayed true to what you intended. There are awards given at County Fairs, college universities and backyard barbecues. Tisha was just trying to insure that this market settled on a REAL award and not something only covered on the back page of a local newspaper.
posted 17 weeks ago
  5 curios
@jenniandboys i am sorry whats this REAL award and i suppose you mean real news papers like the times etc of course living Australia we still scribe on a tablet and the paper boy is barney rubble
posted 17 weeks ago
  6 destry[Admin]
@curios - The purpose in amending your question was to make the question able to be settled accurately and fairly. By not providing any background and with the sparce language of your question, edits were made so it could be a market. The way it was originally written had changes not been made would have been cause for a void. So instead of voiding market, changes were made for clarification purposes. In respect to you early statement that "no one without my permission has the rights in a democracy to alter it", is not accurate in accordance with the Hubdub rules you agreed to upon signing onto the site.
No one was insulting your country, nor you. However I believe Barney Rubble worked for The Pebble Rock and Gravel Company, before joining Fred Flintstone at the Slate Mining Company.
posted 17 weeks ago
  7 kruijs[Power User]
@curios:

If there is any other award not being included please flag the question and ask for addition to the background. I know this site is very USA-oriented, so consider being as accurate as possible when creating a question so these people over there understand what you mean - and explicitly state anything which is not US-American because they will not be aware of it existing.

You really still use tablets to write? We use charcoal over here in Europe :-P
posted 17 weeks ago
@curios - I'm constantly frustrated by internet discussions... A simple conversation over coffee and we'd be able to wave our hands around and communicate effectively. As it is, its hard to understand tone and emotion. <Me: apologetic> I'm sorry my "REAL award" was misinterpreted. I wasn't referring to anything Australian. If there is a major Australian award that you would like to have included, by all means, flag it and we'll include it. I was referring to the multitude of pretend award shows that colleges and clubs put on all over this country. A local engineering fraternity might give out a "biggest feet" award or perhaps Heath might win a sorority house's "Dreamiest clown". The edit was trying to exclude those type of local stories and make sure that the market settled only on a major award. If there is one you feel is missing, please let Tisha know. Sorry for the misunderstanding!
posted 17 weeks ago
  9 Erik
ummmm, destry> The quarry was known by several names: The Slate Rock and Gravel Company, The Slate Gravel and Sand Company, The Bedrock Gravel Company, The Rockhead Quarry, or the Cave Construction Company.
http://i-flintstones.tripod.com/trivia.htm
Barney's employer was never really spelled out.
http://www.topthat.net/webrock/faq/faq26.htm
<winks> I'm a big Flintstone fan, rates right up there with the Jetsons.
posted 17 weeks ago
  10 curios
@jennuandboys i agree with you entirely agree with you over Internet discussions its wrong on one hand you can only sent a shout with friends and theses are shouts under a different forum i have read a lot of spite on various subjects some i would consider libelous and thank you for your advise i have flagged it
posted 17 weeks ago
@destry - thanks
posted 15 weeks ago

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