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How many NEW viewers will A. Lavigne's "Girlfriend" get as new YouTube #1 video by the end of July?

Settled as More than 1 million but less than 2 million

Final tally: 94,752,599

It was surprisingly close, but still under two million.

Background:

Background: Right, so we all know that "Girlfriend" by Avril Lavigne is now(thanks to her fans) the Most Watched video of all time in YouTube.

Doing simple math, in the first 14 days of July, Avril got more than 2 million "new" viewers.

Right now, Avril has 92,884,342 views.

Lets make it simple: 1st of July, Avril had 89,596,895 views.(according to info provided in other question)
She reached the top and RIGHT NOW, July 19 she has 92,884,342 viewers.

So: 3,287,477 new viewers.

For the last 12 days of July, how many new viewers will she have?

To make it clear: views will only be valid from July 19 until July 31st. It's like starting from zero.

IMPORTANT: Starting number: 92.884.342. The question will suspend on July 30, otherwise it wouldn't be fair.

Settlement details:As reported by YouTube. Views will be the ones checked at 11:59pm July 31st. Starting number: 92.884.342. The question will suspend on July 30, otherwise it wouldn't be fair.

 
Forecast history %
Less than 1 million
1%
More than 1 million but less than 2 million
93%
More than 2 million but less than 3 million
5%
More than 3 million
1%
Settled as More than 1 million but less than 2 million on Thu 31st Jul 2008 8:10pm PST

Suspend date: Wed 30th Jul 2008 7:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 31st Jul 2008 8:10pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 30th Jul 2008 7:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Less than 1 million: 15%, More than 1 million but less than 2 million: 35%, More than 2 million but less than 3 million: 25%, More than 3 million: 25%

Action history:

Created Sat 19th Jul 2008 7:40am PST by guibraguim
Suspended Wed 30th Jul 2008 7:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'More than 1 million but less than 2 million' Thu 31st Jul 2008 8:10pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: Final tally: 94,752,599

It was surprisingly close, but still under two million.

Suspend date: Wed 30th Jul 2008 7:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 31st Jul 2008 8:10pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 30th Jul 2008 7:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (24)

1 year ago
semperfi76 predicted More than 1 million but less than 2 million (H$20 at 93%)
1 year ago
90andshort predicted More than 1 million but less than 2 million (H$200 at 93%)
1 year ago
90andshort predicted More than 1 million but less than 2 million (H$100 at 93%)
1 year ago
amice predicted More than 1 million but less than 2 million (H$100 at 92%)
1 year ago
jaspersoddity predicted More than 2 million but less than 3 million (H$20 at 3%)

Comments (17)

To be extremely simple: I wanna know how many new views will Avril get by the end of July starting from July 19th(Today).
posted 1 year ago
Number of views @ 11:10am EDT: 94,680,437

A total of: +1,796,095
posted 1 year ago
Gosh, I believe 93%(including me) will loose some money. =/

16:20 EDT: 94,715, 907. With 168.435 more we will reach 2 million.
posted 1 year ago
  4 dieseldog
10:47pm EST 1,868,257
it won't get 131,743 in the next 50 minutes. least i hope not :O)
posted 1 year ago
  5 dieseldog
92.884.342 94,752,599 10:47pm EST 1,868,257
it won't get 131,743 in the next 50 minutes. least i hope not :O)
posted 1 year ago
In fact, now it's almost impossible, hehe.

OFFICAL NUMBERS @ 11:10 pm EDT: 94.752.599.

Will be back in 40 minutes to show the newest numbers.
posted 1 year ago
11:50 pm EDT: 94.752.599.

Will be back in 10 mins with the final number.
posted 1 year ago
  8 dieseldog
@guibraguim..glad your keeping up with it. i was gonna come post the numbers. are you gonna request a settlement? by the time an admin gets to check it might be over 2 mill. have a nice day.
posted 1 year ago
OK

FINAL NUMBER: 94.752.599

will wait for 10 mins to see if it is updated, if not, this will be the final.
posted 1 year ago
  10 guibraguim
yes dieseldog, I'm going to request settlement.
And thanks, I like to keep track whenever I create a question.
posted 1 year ago
No worries guys -- I stayed up for the express purpose of settling this question! (Which is not to say that I will make a habit of this!)
posted 1 year ago
  12 dieseldog
@jenni..mucho gracis. now stay up and get really tired to where you can barely keep your eyes open and play valor in the battle of the sexes scrabble :O)
posted 1 year ago
  13 guibraguim
Thanks jenni! And...it was updated!

FINAL NUMBER then: 94.785.409

New viewers: 1.901.067
posted 1 year ago
Was this settled early?

"Unless otherwise specified, if the question is with regards a general US news event then local time will considered to be PST."

All other similar questions have always been settled based on Pacific Time.
posted 1 year ago
  15 destry[Admin]
Well if we really wanted to get technical the RCA company that put up the Avril Lavigne video is located out of New York. So an east coast settlement time would be appropriate. In the end of the day there wont be a difference one way or another. I hundred thousand users in the final 2 hours is EXTREMELY unlikely.
posted 1 year ago
Newswrangler - Good point. I noticed that the question creator was posting in EDT so I assumed that he intended for the question to be settled in EDT. But you're right, that wasn't explicitly stated so it should have settled in PDT.

Thankfully though, 7 hours after the PDT deadline, the count is still under 2 million (if only just barely).

Final, Final tally: 94,827,520 (and this better be the last time I have to watch the first 3 seconds of this stupid video!!)
posted 1 year ago
  17 dieseldog
@newswrangler & admins..whats your thoughts on ammending the rule to avoid this in the future? it would imho help the new players. not to mention me in some cases. last night serval questions was still open to bet on after the outcome was knowin. from past experience i knew not to bet on them. maybe change the rule that suspend time is also settlement time? dunno how many people flag or ask why their bet was voided to make it worth changing or not. maybe put the burden on the question creator to say when they want it to settle? got lucky on this question. in the future might be a headache. have a nice day.
posted 1 year ago

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guibraguim
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