guibraguim 
How many NEW viewers will A. Lavigne's "Girlfriend" get as new YouTube #1 video by the end of July?
Final tally: 94,752,599
It was surprisingly close, but still under two million.
Background:
Doing simple math, in the first 14 days of July, Avril got more than 2 million "new" viewers.
Right now, Avril has 92,884,342 views.
Lets make it simple: 1st of July, Avril had 89,596,895 views.(according to info provided in other question)
She reached the top and RIGHT NOW, July 19 she has 92,884,342 viewers.
So: 3,287,477 new viewers.
For the last 12 days of July, how many new viewers will she have?
To make it clear: views will only be valid from July 19 until July 31st. It's like starting from zero.
IMPORTANT: Starting number: 92.884.342. The question will suspend on July 30, otherwise it wouldn't be fair.
Settlement details:
As reported by YouTube. Views will be the ones checked at 11:59pm July 31st. Starting number: 92.884.342. The question will suspend on July 30, otherwise it wouldn't be fair.
Settled
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Less than 1 million |
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More than 1 million but less than 2 million |
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More than 2 million but less than 3 million |
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More than 3 million |
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Suspend date: Wed 30th Jul 8:59pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 31st Jul 9:10pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 30th Jul 8:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Less than 1 million: 15%, More than 1 million but less than 2 million: 35%, More than 2 million but less than 3 million: 25%, More than 3 million: 25%
Action history:
guibraguim 
jenniandboys![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Final tally: 94,752,599
It was surprisingly close, but still under two million.
Suspend date: Wed 30th Jul 8:59pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 31st Jul 9:10pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 30th Jul 8:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (24)
24 predictions
semperfi76
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guibraguim
23 settled, 3 voided
A total of: +1,796,095
16:20 EDT: 94,715, 907. With 168.435 more we will reach 2 million.
it won't get 131,743 in the next 50 minutes. least i hope not :O)
it won't get 131,743 in the next 50 minutes. least i hope not :O)
OFFICAL NUMBERS @ 11:10 pm EDT: 94.752.599.
Will be back in 40 minutes to show the newest numbers.
Will be back in 10 mins with the final number.
FINAL NUMBER: 94.752.599
will wait for 10 mins to see if it is updated, if not, this will be the final.
And thanks, I like to keep track whenever I create a question.
FINAL NUMBER then: 94.785.409
New viewers: 1.901.067
"Unless otherwise specified, if the question is with regards a general US news event then local time will considered to be PST."
All other similar questions have always been settled based on Pacific Time.
Thankfully though, 7 hours after the PDT deadline, the count is still under 2 million (if only just barely).
Final, Final tally: 94,827,520 (and this better be the last time I have to watch the first 3 seconds of this stupid video!!)
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