Created Sat 19th Jul 11:57am PDT by 
valornhonor![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user")
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Will the ratio of eligible US voters, voting > ratio of HD users balance over $1K on 11/4/08?
Current forecast: 56% chance 
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 56% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)
Although a sacred right, nearly half of American that could have voted during the last 40 years for President, for whatever reason, didn't vote.
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_percentage_of_eligible_Americans_vote
Checking the All Time Net Worth for HD users I see that username ledhed is the last user with a balance greater than $1,000 @ $1,001. Every user after ledhed (#4116/8417) has a balance of $1,000 or less. This makes the ratio of HD users with balances north of $1K in HD money 48.9%, or just a bit less than the ratio of Americans that could have voted but didn't in the last 40 years.
Hubdub is new and exciting and the Presidential cycle this season is also very stimulated.
This market is looking to predict, on November 4th, whether the ratio of US voters that ended up voting was greater than the ratio of HD users with balances above $1K on that same day.
Starting odds give a slight advantage to the voters; 5.1%, but that could change.
What do you think?
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_percentage_of_eligible_Americans_vote
Checking the All Time Net Worth for HD users I see that username ledhed is the last user with a balance greater than $1,000 @ $1,001. Every user after ledhed (#4116/8417) has a balance of $1,000 or less. This makes the ratio of HD users with balances north of $1K in HD money 48.9%, or just a bit less than the ratio of Americans that could have voted but didn't in the last 40 years.
Hubdub is new and exciting and the Presidential cycle this season is also very stimulated.
This market is looking to predict, on November 4th, whether the ratio of US voters that ended up voting was greater than the ratio of HD users with balances above $1K on that same day.
Starting odds give a slight advantage to the voters; 5.1%, but that could change.
What do you think?
Make your prediction!
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Yes |
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No |
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Activity: H$5,743
Question suspends in 3 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
Yes: 55%
Action history:
Created Sat 19th Jul 11:57am PDT by valornhonor
valornhonor
Suspended Sat 19th Jul 12:49pm PDT by 
newswrangler: show details
newswrangler: show detailsFlagged by super user:
Suspended pending review by Category Editor.
This question may be open to gaming -- tossed to Category Editor for a decision.
Suspended pending review by Category Editor.
This question may be open to gaming -- tossed to Category Editor for a decision.
Unsuspended Sun 20th Jul 2:17pm PDT by 
nigeleccles![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: show details
nigeleccles: show detailsWe voided other questions about registrations because they were too easy to game. This question isn't easy to game. It would require a user to create 100's of accounts to swing. If a user where to do that we would spot it. Therefore I think this question is fine.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all
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score: 10
Houston Chronicle 1 day ago
this year -- with women more likely than men to favor the Democratic ticket -- mean a heavy turnout among women could make the difference in a close election, according to the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP). The review of voting rates
score: 10
Macro World Investor 2 days ago
predicted an 80 percent turnout -- gave me reason to hope. In 2004, the most-recent presidential election year, voter turnout was nearly 72 percent in Ohio. Not bad. But that year's notorious waiting lines reflected, in part, previous voter apathy; some
score: 10
Los Angeles Times 2 days ago
it would be patriotic to take telemarketing calls. And I'd read the e-mails you send me. A high voter turnout doesn't make our democracy work better. Canada typically has a turnout of than 75%, and it has yet to pick a leader anyone's heard of. If voting
score: 10
Yahoo! Canada 2 days ago
thousands of Canadians of their right to cast a ballot in Tuesday's federal election and contribute to poor voter turnout, says the B.C. Civil Liberties Association. Parliament changed the Canada Elections Act in the spring of 2007 to require voters to
score: 10
EURweb 2 days ago
razor thin victories in Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004 underscore the importance of a maximum black voter turnout. But the problem of getting blacks to the polls may be even greater than the Obama campaign realizes and that starts with the figure of 8
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I would predict that most active Hubdubbers have at least H$2,000.
Of course, a lot of Americans have abandoned their voting rights.
If we re-open this market, should we re-word the question to 'registered US voters?' It is my understanding that US citizens 18 years or older are eligible voters. However, only those voters who have registered can actually vote.
13 states allow felons to vote upon release from prison.
5 states allow felons vote upon completion of parole.
20 states allow felons vote upon completion of all supervised release.
10 states have varying conditions for re-enfranchisement -- however all states eventually allow felons ("ex-felons") to vote.
HD allows felons and ex-felons equally.
I've been thoroughly updated! Thank you so much, think I'll celebrate by going out and breaking some laws.
....just kidding.
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