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When will the Tropical Depression that becomes Dolly form in the Atlantic basin?

Settled as Before July 21

When a tropical depression's windspeed reaches 39 miles per hour, it becomes named. The next named tropical cyclone during 2008 will be called Dolly.

This market will be settled when the National Hurricane Center refers to Dolly. It will be settled based on the first public advisory issued for the cyclone at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml. For example, Bertha's first public advisory was July 3 (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/BERTHA.shtml?).
 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Before July 21
25%
Between July 21 and July 24
27%
July 25 or July 26
10%
July 27 or July 28
10%
Between July 29 and July 31
8%
Between August 1 and August 4
8%
Between August 5 and August 9
7%
Between August 10 and December 31
5%
Christobal does not form in 2008
1%
Activity: H$11,862
Settled as Before July 21 on Sun 20th Jul 11:56am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml.

Suspend date: Sat 9th Aug 6pm PDT

Settlement date: Sun 20th Jul 11:56am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 20th Jul 8:45am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Before July 21: 25%, Between July 21 and July 24: 20%, July 25 or July 26: 11%, July 27 or July 28: 11%, Between July 29 and July 31: 9%, Between August 1 and August 4: 9%, Between August 5 and August 9: 8%, Between August 10 and December 31: 6%, Christobal does not form in 2008: 1%

Action history:

Created Sat 19th Jul 7:37pm PDT by onedave
Suspended Sun 20th Jul 9:04am PDT by destry[Admin]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Sun 20th Jul 9:04am PDT by destry[Admin]: Please settle as before July 21st. Void all predictions made after 11 am. EST. (market suspended)
Settled as 'Before July 21' Sun 20th Jul 11:56am PDT by tisha[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml.... read all

 

Predictions (5)

5 predictions

5 weeks ago
vdc5087 predicted Before July 21 (H$20 at 76%)
5 weeks ago
bobdevine predicted Before July 21 (H$5,555 at 51%)
5 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted Between July 21 and July 24 (H$262 at 25%)
5 weeks ago
destry[Admin] predicted Before July 21 (H$200 at 25%)
5 weeks ago
destry[Admin] predicted Between July 21 and July 24 (H$250 at 22%)

Comments (1)

  1 bobdevine
Dolly has now been named:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/201539.shtml
posted 5 weeks ago

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