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How many people will attend Obamas speech in Berlin?

Settled as 100,000 to less than 250,000

It appears there were around 200.000 people at the speech
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSL238333620080725

Background:

Barack Obama will speak on the eastern side of the Victory Column, between the monument and the Brandenburg Gate, this Thursday.

The public area beginning at the Brandenburg Gate opens 16 o'clock. The speech itself is expected to begin at 19:00h.

For safety reasons the organizers ask to not bring along any bags. Posters or transparencies are not permitted. Just like in Beijing. It is not reported if chants are practiced already, though.

The authorities in Berlin expect a large visitor congestion: Between 10.000 and one million people are expected, said Ephraim Gothe.

Fan miles, as known from the EURO 2008 with large video walls are planned.

Go, Barack, go!

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iaz3rr95XrLM6XONohYDrGhN5wiQD921J9P00
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,566899,00.html
 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

less than 10,000
0%
10,000 to less than 50,000
5%
50,000 to less than 100,000
21%
100,000 to less than 250,000
36%
250,000 to less than 500,000
18%
500,000 to less than 1,000,000
15%
1,000,000 or more
5%
Activity: H$30,580
Settled as 100,000 to less than 250,000 on Thu 24th Jul 11:50pm PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Thu 24th Jul 2:59am PDT

Settlement date: Thu 24th Jul 11:50pm PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 24th Jul 2:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: less than 10,000: 1%, 10,000 to less than 50,000: 7%, 50,000 to less than 100,000: 10%, 100,000 to less than 250,000: 19%, 250,000 to less than 500,000: 35%, 500,000 to less than 1,000,000: 20%, 1,000,000 or more: 8%

Action history:

Created Sun 20th Jul 7:21am PDT by kruijs[Power User]
Suspended Thu 24th Jul 2:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 24th Jul 11:34am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]:
Winning prediction, according to Fox News and the AP appears to be:

"100,000 to less than 250,000"


"The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee took the podium at his first major speech of his overseas trip to a cheering audience of thousands. The Obama campaign said the speech drew more than 200,000 people, and police confirmed that number — making it his largest audience to date."

<http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/07/24/obama-urges-renewed-alliance-with-europe-in-berlin-speech/>

Although "confirmed by police" it may be a good idea to wait for another confirming source (Reuters?) ...
Settlement requested Thu 24th Jul 3:24pm PDT by rogi: Hi guys,

Obama was seen by 'around 200,000' according to Sky News:

http://tinyurl.com/5ke6gd
Settlement requested Thu 24th Jul 5:47pm PDT by gregmatta: 200,000

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080724/ap_on_el_pr/obama_germany
Settled as '100,000 to less than 250,000' Thu 24th Jul 11:50pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: It appears there were around 200.000 people at the speech
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSL238333620080725
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (227)

227 predictions

6 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted 100,000 to less than 250,000 (H$200 at 35%)
6 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted 50,000 to less than 100,000 (H$300 at 19%)
6 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted 100,000 to less than 250,000 (H$200 at 34%)
6 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted 50,000 to less than 100,000 (H$100 at 16%)
6 weeks ago
sdchargers[Power User] predicted 50,000 to less than 100,000 (H$100 at 16%)
more

Comments (17)

@ Kruijs,

I've been to the Brandenburg gate, but I don't have a feel for the general capacity of the area you're describing, any chance you can provide some historical context for the size of past crowds??
posted 6 weeks ago
  2 kruijs[Power User]
The area reserved for the "masses" is the "17th June Street", not just the area at the Column, nor the Gate, itself.

There have been large scale events there, EURO 2008, World Cup 2006 (1 Million people), recently and in the past the "Love Parade", a house music festival (last one in Berlin: 2006, 1,2 Million).

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stra%C3%9Fe_des_17._Juni
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Love_Parade#2006
posted 6 weeks ago
  3 gregmatta
Is Obama the Messiah. 1,000,000 is a lot of people. What did the Pope draw on his visits to the USA. The 1,000,000 man march on Washington was a sreatch. Does a US candidate have that kind of pull. I'll be impressed if it get to 1,000,000. 1/2 a mill would impress me.
posted 6 weeks ago
I predict over 500,000. The Germans LOVE Obama. The population of Berlin is 3,405,000. There is 20 percent unemployment, that makes 681,000 with nothing to do but lots of time and money (unemployment benefits are high by US standards). I go to Berlin about twice a year and they sleep in very, very late. Most of my friends don't wake up til about noon or one, so that Obama's event doesn't start until 7pm is very smart. And Tiergarten Park is massive and the German authorities are apparently shutting down the street through the middle of the park. The weather on Thursday is going to be sunny and nearly 80 degrees: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day_f.shtml?world=0050

All these elements lead to high turnout. And Berliners are a high turn out kind of people from my experience there.

posted 6 weeks ago
If David Hasselhoff were there to introduce Obama, he would probably have 2 million show up.
posted 6 weeks ago
  6 kruijs[Power User]
lol the germans love the Hoff!

He even claimed the Wall came down because he sung "I've been looking for freedom"

hilarious!
posted 6 weeks ago
-.-* Sometimes I could cry what other nation think about the germans.... David Hasselhoff....

I think if Obamas team get a high number of people to got there, they won't ne more than 200.000, but I assume the number will be much lesser.
posted 6 weeks ago
from cnn.com

Police estimated that more than 200,000 people came to watch the speech, according to The Associated Press.
posted 6 weeks ago
I'm guessing that reggae artist Patrice and the rock band Reamonn helped bring a lot of the people to the event!

They are so popular that some folk would even suffer through a political speech at the end of the performance :-)
posted 6 weeks ago
  10 curios
the mans speech was brilliant and over 200.000 where there ref mike amore
posted 6 weeks ago
  11 dieseldog
hope this don't turn into a spitzer. there will be lots of differnt numbers coming out. goodluck admin.
posted 6 weeks ago
@curios - this man's speech strained facts or made up history whole cloth. I would say a "brilliant" speech needs to be factual!

Instead, he claimed that "many planes were forced to turn back" from the Berlin Airlift because of the bad weather, that "The size of our [US] forces was no match for the much larger Soviet Army... All that stood in the way was Berlin.", that "you, the German people, tore down that wall" (as if they acted by themselves)... and a host of other things that were, at best, mischevious, or worse, bald faced lies

I would not call that brilliant
posted 6 weeks ago
  13 kruijs[Power User]
@notablenotices you don't like Obama, do you? Just asking :)
posted 6 weeks ago
  14 kruijs[Power User]
oh, notablenotices, you're right btw. I don't think his speech was "brilliant" either.
posted 6 weeks ago
@ kruijs - Congratulations on a fine question!

I saw this photo -- thought it was pretty neat.
<http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2008/07/25/obamaberlin_wideweb__470x303,0.jpg>

(@ dieseldog -- while there are several numbers, they all fit within the "100,000 to less than 250,000" range, so I would anticipate an easy settlement ;-)
posted 6 weeks ago
@kruijs - good guess :-)

By the way, I am not real excited about any candidate in this election, but Barack scares me!
posted 6 weeks ago
  17 kasulked
@notablenotices - I'm with you neither candidate excites me be Barack scares the hell out of me
posted 6 weeks ago

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