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Which Category will have the most Hurricanes in 2008?

Current forecast: Category 4 (78% chance10%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Category 4 with a probability of 78% (down 10% in last 1 day)

Bertha reached a Cat 3. Which Category will have the most Hurricanes. Does not have to have land fall. Tropical Storms not included.

Category Editor clarification:This question will only refer to hurricanes that form after 21 July, until the end of 2008. Since Dolly became a hurricane on July 22nd, that is the first hurricane that counts for the totals here.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. This question will only refer to hurricanes that form after 21 July, until the end of 2008.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Category 1
6%
Category 2
8%
Category 3
2%
Category 4
78%
Category 5
0%
Tie or other
6%
Activity: H$55,613
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 30th Dec 7:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Category 1: 25%, Category 2: 25%, Category 3: 25%, Category 4: 10%, Category 5: 5%, Tie or other: 10%

Action history:

Created Sun 20th Jul 5:30pm PDT by gregmatta
Suspended Sun 20th Jul 9:03pm PDT by destry[Admin]: Flagged by super user: Question suspended until clarification can be provided. Are we looking for the highest category each storm achieves and then keeping track of that. Because all category 2 storms, were at one point a category 1 storm.
Unsuspended Mon 21st Jul 2:28am PDT by tisha[Admin]: question has been clarified, see comment
Suspended Tue 30th Sep 8:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Wed 1st Oct 3:41am PDT by tisha[Admin]: was: "2008-09-30 19:59:00"
Unsuspended Wed 1st Oct 3:43am PDT by tisha[Admin]: Suspend date moved to the end of 2008, as per the question details.

Suspend date: Tue 30th Dec 7:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (116)

116 predictions

2 days ago
dragon01 predicted Category 4 (H$20 at 82%)
2 days ago
dragon01 predicted Category 4 (H$1,000 at 87%)
2 days ago
lcsnor predicted Category 4 (H$100 at 58%)
3 days ago
dragon01 predicted Tie or other (H$20 at 12%)
3 days ago
dragon01 predicted Tie or other (H$20 at 12%)
more

Comments (7)

  1 gregmatta
Atlantic Hurricanes.
posted 17 weeks ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
I think, unless the creator would like to overrule me, that this question has to refer to the maximum category height achieved by the hurricane. That would be the commonsense reading, otherwise category one would be the winner for sure.

Also, it's worth noting that a question cannot be created to cover the time period before its creation, so this question will only refer to hurricanes that form after 21 July, until the end of 2008.
posted 17 weeks ago
  3 gregmatta
Maximum category height achieved by the hurricane is what the question is asking for.
posted 17 weeks ago
  4 bayoubear[Admin]
Category one should still be highly favored since all hurricanes start off as ones, and then see how many gain strength to earn a higher category. Should be interesting to see...maybe do a little research into previous seasons...
posted 17 weeks ago
This question doesn't include Bertha, based on comment 2. So Dolly is the first hurricane that counts.
posted 11 weeks ago
  6 dragon01
How does this settle if there's more than one category with the same number of hurricanes....I believe we currently have such a situation, as Cat 1 , Cat 3, and Cat 4 all have the same numbers of occurrences thus far.
posted 1 week ago
  7 dragon01
Oops...disregard my last post...working with old data...sorry folks.
posted 1 week ago

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