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Will the Doha rounds of trade talks finally succeed this week in Geneva?

Settled as No

http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKL938758520080729

The talks have collapsed.

Background:

The Doha round of WTO trade talks began in November 2001 in Doha, Qatar. It was billed as the development round where developing nations were meant to find a fairer deal in trade negotiations with the developed nations. So far talks have failed to deliver a deal on global trade.

At issue: Developing countries have been pressing for lower farm subsidies and agricultural tariffs in the developed world.

Industrialised states are demanding in return that developing countries make their markets more accessible to imported services and manufactured goods.

So far developing nations have insisted that any deal is contingent upon the EU and US first cutting back on agricultural subsidies. The US says it has made concessions on agricultural subsidies.

This weekend, however, the Brazilian foreign minister caused controversy when he compared the US negotiators to Goebbels :

"Goebbels used to say if you repeat a lie several times it becomes a truth," said Amorim, whose country has co-led with India a broad coalition of developing countries at the WTO talks.

Negotiators now say that the six day discussions in Geneva is 'make or break time.' That a deal must be finished before November elections in the US when a more protectionist administration is expected to come to power.



 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
16%
No
84%
Activity: H$22,712
Settled as No on Tue 29th Jul 2:05pm PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Wed 30th Jul 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Tue 29th Jul 2:05pm PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 29th Jul 9am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Mon 21st Jul 3:38am PDT by boogieandjive
Suspended Sun 27th Jul 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Mon 28th Jul 7:40am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: Talks are continuing until Wednesday
Settlement requested Tue 29th Jul 1:39pm PDT by kruijs[Power User]: "Talks to rescue a new world trade deal collapsed on Tuesday after ministers from some 35 countries failed to overcome divisions in nine days of intense talks."
http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKL938758520080729

"Ministers from the U.S., India and Brazil said a new effort should follow the collapse in talks. The WTO ``should make another try,'' Brazilian Trade Minister Celso Amorim said. Lamy said, ``We will need to let the dust settle a bit'' before deciding how to move forward. "
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aW3iJRO7lDkA&refer=home
Suspended Tue 29th Jul 1:39pm PDT by kruijs[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Tue 29th Jul 1:39pm PDT by kruijs[Power User]: Please settle "NO" (market suspended)
Settled as 'No' Tue 29th Jul 2:05pm PDT by lesley[Admin]: http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKL938758520080729

The talks have collapsed.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (27)

27 predictions

5 weeks ago
racketdad predicted No (H$1,445 at 82%)
5 weeks ago
danhanley predicted No (H$200 at 82%)
5 weeks ago
kiwifire predicted No (H$60 at 82%)
5 weeks ago
kxlly predicted No (H$100 at 82%)
5 weeks ago
keyeshoveden predicted Yes (H$300 at 18%)
more

Comments (8)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
succeed = deliver "a deal on global trade"
right?
posted 6 weeks ago
@kruijs. Yes, it means that - a deal on global trade. Sorry, this is the first contract I have launched, so I may have made a few mistakes . . . for example, not all html is accepted as you see the links don't seem to work. Nor the blockquote functionality.
posted 6 weeks ago
  3 kruijs[Power User]
relax, no prob.

You may want to "Flag for review" your question (see the link just beneath the options). That way you can ask the category editors (aka admins, Cat-Eds) to correct/cleanup the background text.

You might also want to give a more bullet-proof description of the term "success" in this context. What exactly would be a success which would suffice to let this question settle "yes"? You can do this by choosing the same Flag For Review (the textbox in that dialog is quite small, but not limited in length of text capability).

Thanks for creating the question, nevertheless!

:)
posted 6 weeks ago
@ boogieandjive

Yes, thank you for the market! You'll find that question creation is addictive, we look forward to more questions from you!
posted 6 weeks ago
  8 kruijs[Power User]
"Talks to rescue a new world trade deal collapsed on Tuesday after ministers from some 35 countries failed to overcome divisions in nine days of intense talks."
http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKL938758520080729

"Ministers from the U.S., India and Brazil said a new effort should follow the collapse in talks. The WTO ``should make another try,'' Brazilian Trade Minister Celso Amorim said. Lamy said, ``We will need to let the dust settle a bit'' before deciding how to move forward. "
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aW3iJRO7lDkA&refer=home
posted 5 weeks ago

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