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When will Scotland field its own Eurovision entry

Current forecast: 2012 or later (40% chance1%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is 2012 or later with a probability of 40% (up 1% in last 1 day)

After decades of paying for the musical ineptitude of its UK neighbours, Scotland - the nation which brought us the Bay City Rollers and.. urm... The Proclaimers - is thinking about striking out on its own, leaving England, Wales and Northern Ireland to wallow in the stench of their own failure.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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2009
17%
2010
19%
2011
24%
2012 or later
40%
Activity: H$349
Question suspends in 2 years

Suspend date: Wed 1st Jun 2011 12:59am PDT (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: 2009: 15%, 2010: 20%, 2011: 25%, 2012 or later: 40%

Action history:

Created Mon 21st Jul 6:54am PDT by richie_edinburgh

Suspend date: Wed 1st Jun 2011 12:59am PDT (2 years to go)
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Predictions (3)

3 predictions

17 weeks ago
richie_edinburgh predicted 2012 or later (H$50 at 39%)
17 weeks ago
cognos[Power User] predicted 2009 (H$100 at 16%)

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