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Will Omar Khadr be released from Guantanamo Bay into Canadian Custody be December 31st 2008?

Current forecast: 14% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 14% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Omar Khadr is the only remaining prisoner from the West being held at Guantanamo Bay. He is charged in the death of an American soldier in Afghanistan. He was only 15 years old when captured and has been in custody ever since. Khadr is now 21 years old (22 in Sept 2008).


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
14%
No
86%
Activity: H$21,157
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 8:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Mon 21st Jul 12:23pm PDT by paulcroft

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 8:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (26)

26 predictions

1 week ago
horsefeathers predicted Yes (H$20 at 14%)
3 weeks ago
capecodviking predicted No (H$5 at 77%)
4 weeks ago
bcguelph predicted No (H$2,000 at 76%)
11 weeks ago
bcramroy predicted No (H$100 at 72%)
12 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted No (H$1,800 at 71%)
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