Where will the DJIA close on Tuesday, July 22, 2008?

10 am. MST: Looks as though the market has hit the Horse Latitudes.

Doesn't this market usually close just before 4 EST? Looks like it is scheduled to close just before 3 EST.

@swilson
yes, you are correct. this market has 'usually' suspended, as you say. however, after many discussions and polls, it was decided by the greater hd community that we would try to suspend a little bit earlier, more in line with a prediction site, as opposed to a "Who has the quickest mouse?" site.

As per the background information provided, this market will suspend 15 minutes before the DOW closes, as opposed to the 5 minutes that we've become accustomed to. We will then evalute everyone's opinion to determine how it should be done in the future. So, please chime in with your concerns, issues, ideas.

swilson's $0.02 -
I think these are two equally entertaining components of Hubdub "wagering". First, the active markets; the indices. These markets allow users to become actively engaged in the wagering and, like the indices themselves, provide a unique and fast-paced experience (and must be gold for the stay rate).
Second, the long term markets; those markets wagered in with the intention of seeing the investment through to settlement. These markets can provide both a sense of investment, commitment and are often a little safer.
I enjoy them both and hope Hubdub finds a place for both.

The suspend time for this question will be set for 15 minutes prior to closing this week to see how the hubdubbers react. Looks like today those who eventually closed out in the correct range were only 81%. With the market as close to two different ranges, closing a few more minutes earlier requires the Hubdubber to truly predict the daily outcome.

If not popular, then I'll reconsider the time..."come on Mikey, try it, you'll like it"

<<Looks like today those who eventually closed out in the correct range were only 81%.>>

This is incorrect.

Please see this ...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032222/

or any other financial report, and you will see that only 16% of Hubdubbers closed out in the correct range.

This is one of the reasons that earlier suspend times make the game more enjoyable. If this market suspended at 3 I bet even more would have been wrong.

I agree that the earlier suspension time makes these markets more of a 'prediction' market. I don't think that 1 hour should be the standard. 10 - 30 minutes would gain my vote.

@ cognos -- you wrote, "you will see that only 16% of Hubdubbers closed out in the correct range".

For the benefit of new users, that would be "16% of the Hubdub dollars in play". It could be one individual that had that prediction, -- or "many users". AFAIK, it's virtually impossible to tell how many users have "winning" or "losing" predictions.

Also, the "market activity" (in this market = H$56,979) reflects the total of ALL predictions -- both those that are "made" AND those that are "cashed out".

Said differently, if I make a prediction of H$100 in a market that currently has H$5,000 of "Activity" in it, the "Activity" will increase by H$100 to H$5,100. If I then cash that H$100 prediction out (at full value), the Activity will again increase by H$100, to H$5,200.

For markets where there is a high percentage of "cash outs" -- such as the Indices (or "Who Will Be President of the US?"), there is likely to be a vastly distorted representation of what the "real" amount of H$ in play truly are.

@newswrangler - You said Said differently, if I make a prediction of H$100 in a market that currently has H$5,000 of "Activity" in it, the "Activity" will increase by H$100 to H$5,100. If I then cash that H$100 prediction out (at full value), the Activity will again increase by H$100, to H$5,200.
That is not correct. If I make a wager in a market the total activity increases by that amount, but if I then turn around and cash in that position the amount decreases.
I tested this out on three separate markets after you posted your comment and in all three cases when I cashed in those activity numbers decreased.

@ destry -- you and I have different information/results.

I just went to this market:
<http://www.hubdub.com/m11746/MLB_724__Philadelphia_Phillies__NY_Mets__Who_will_win>

I made a H$20 wager yesterday. When I went there, just now, the total "Activity" was H$20

I cashed that out, and the total went to H$40

I then (re)made the H$20 wager -- and the total went to H$60.

It is currently at H$60.

(BTW, the "recent predictions" still show my "original prediction" from yesterday, along with the new one from a couple of minutes ago. The reality is I have one H$20 prediction in that market.)

Look at that market now. It shows $60 in predictions, but if you look you will see I wagered $100 and then cashed out, so it is back to $60. Yet on predictions screen there is your two 20 and my 100.

By my observations, destry is correct. When I place a wager, the total activity goes up. When i cash out that prediction, the activity goes down by that amount. It's been that way on each market, for as long as I can remember.

@ destry -- I see that.

As I said, you and I have different results, with different information :-|

Go figure.

(it *shouldn't* make any difference, but to "rule it out", try the same thing, but make the prediction on the other team -- same as mine.)

@ cognos -- IMNHO that's the way it *ought* to be.

This isn't, btw, about "who is correct" and who isn't ;-)

You, Destry, and I are reporting what our results are. They are different.

I did it again with selecting other team but same results. I think there might be something to the fact that one of your predictions was made overnight. Maybe after so many hours the activity locks in, and then by cashing in that prediction it is recording that as additional activity.
I hope they develop functionality in which we can see number of people wagered on each side and amount of money in each direction, and then total money invested.
I have seen markets with negative activity, wonder what causes that.

@ Destry -- the results (experience) I have are not unique to this market. It's something I've noticed for some time now.

I've noticed the "locked in" predictions in any number of markets ... when I, or another user has cashed the position out, it appears that the user still has an active prediction.

My guess (and that's all it is) is that it is a bug with the "public/private" prediction function.

I'll send a bug report to Chris or Tom, and reference this thread.

I've seen one, maybe two negative balances -- no clue on that.

As an aside, I'd be interested to know if the total amount of H$ in the "Who Will Be President of the US?" market is an accurate number...

In the meantime, I'm going to make a private prediction to that market for H$200, then cash it out, and see if there's any difference.

OK -- here's a "clue" ;-)

I did just make a H$200 prediction, and the total moved to H$260.

I cashed it out, and the total went back to H$60.

'Course that doesn't explain why your results (and those of Cognos, etc.) are different than mine when making public predictions.

<,This isn't, btw, about "who is correct" and who isn't ;-) >>

Never meant it 'that' way. I'll be more careful with my wording in the future.

Is it possible that we have different settings? (ie., some folks get a sell confirmation page, and some simply push the 'cash out' button, but remain on the same screen.)
This new capability may operate somewhat differently (different code), and being new, may not have been fully tested, etc. In addition, if you do not get the confirmation page, then the activity total value doesn't get updated on your page immediately. Let's find out if our settings are the same before we continue to test.

I use the confirmation page. What about you?

In my experience, when I cash out the next day, my cash out adds to the activity - when I cash out on the same day they cancel each other out.

You will find the setting ...

My Hubdub->My account->Site Settings ...

Skip confirm page when cashing in predictions

@ cognos -- Yes, I use the confirmation page (same as you).

@fingers of fury - BTW, I sent in a bug report, referencing this market comment thread.

To avoid "hijacking" the comment thread(s), I have opened a topic in the Get Satisfaction forum.

Please make further comments here:

<http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/bug_report_market_activity>

@newswrangler - I just commented on your get satisfaction thread... Thanks!