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After which race will Kyle Busch lose his 2008 Sprint Cup points lead?

Current forecast: Busch does not lose points lead (45% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Busch does not lose points lead with a probability of 45% (unchanged in last 1 day)

After the Lifelock.com 400 race, Kyle Busch had a 262-point lead over second-place Dale Earnhardt Jr. A race winner can earn 195 points, while the 43rd place finisher can receive as few as 34 points. The official standings are available at: http://www.nascar.com/races/cup/2008/data/standings_official.html. The race schedule is available at: http://www.nascar.com/races/cup/2008/rr_index.html

In the event that Kyle Busch loses his points lead, due to a penalty or other point adjustment, this market will settle as 'Busch loses points lead due to points adjustment.'

Settlement will be based on the date that the race is actually run.
 
Forecast history, %
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Before August 16
3%
Between August 17 and August 30
3%
Between August 31 and September 13
6%
Between September 14 and September 20
9%
Between September 21 and October 4
8%
Between October 5 and October 18
6%
Between October 19 and November 1
6%
November 2 or later
6%
Busch loses points lead due to points adjustment
6%
Busch does not lose points lead
45%
Activity: H$2,320
Question suspends in 10 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source or www.nascar.com.

Suspend date: Sun 16th Nov 11:45am PST (10 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Before August 16: 5%, Between August 17 and August 30: 5%, Between August 31 and September 13: 10%, Between September 14 and September 20: 15%, Between September 21 and October 4: 10%, Between October 5 and October 18: 10%, Between October 19 and November 1: 10%, November 2 or later: 10%, Busch loses points lead due to points adjustment: 10%, Busch does not lose points lead: 15%

Action history:

Created Mon 21st Jul 4:30pm PDT by onedave
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source or www.nascar.com.... read all

 

Predictions (5)

5 predictions

5 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted Busch does not lose points lead (H$200 at 31%)
6 weeks ago
onedave predicted Busch does not lose points lead (H$20 at 31%)
6 weeks ago
measure predicted Busch does not lose points lead (H$1,000 at 22%)

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