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Will Radovan Karadzic die before his trial ends at the Hague?

Current forecast: 32% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 32% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Slobodan Milosevic, former leader of the Serbian government, died before his war-crimes trials ended. see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slobodan_Milo%C5%A1evi%C4%87

This question asks if Radovan Karadzic will meet the same fate.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
32%
No
68%
Activity: H$12,069
Question suspends in 11 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Thu 1st Jan 2009 11:59pm PST (11 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Tue 22nd Jul 12:30pm PDT by cognos[Power User]
Clarified Tue 22nd Jul 4:45pm PDT by lesley[Admin]: "die" would include murder
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (43)

43 predictions

1 week ago
gtown predicted Yes (H$10 at 32%)
9 weeks ago
jbolli predicted No (H$100 at 68%)
9 weeks ago
fellcolor predicted No (H$700 at 68%)
9 weeks ago
cognos[Power User] predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 31%)
10 weeks ago
boris predicted Yes (H$100 at 29%)
more

Comments (9)

  1 gregmatta
He should be that lucky.
posted 11 weeks ago
cognos, this is unlike you, you must feel strongly about this.
posted 11 weeks ago
  3 cognos[Power User]
This guy, Rad, was deep into the mess. More hands on, imho, that the 'Slob'. He then hides by staying in the open, acting like a doctor, while his 'comrades' take the fall. He meets the true definition of both Tyrant and Traitor. Both titles deserve the worst possible fate.

Yes, this is 'unlike' me. But when you consider the torture and death received at his hand or command, I have no problem posting a market such as this.
posted 11 weeks ago
  4 cognos[Power User]
and besides, I lost a few Marine buddies over there.
posted 11 weeks ago
I suspected it was something like this, thank you for the explanation, I concur completely, tyrants and traitors like this deserve no quarter.
posted 11 weeks ago
I see assisted suicide on the horizon.
posted 11 weeks ago
  7 cognos[Power User]
@buckeyetom
'assisted suicide', INDEED!
;)
you are a blast.
posted 11 weeks ago
  8 cognos[Power User]
Apparently, while in 'hiding', Rad would frequent the same bar where he used to hang out. According to other patrons, he actually picked up a common musical instrument and played a folk song. The folk song was about him and his heroic deeds.
posted 10 weeks ago
  9 cognos[Power User]
Talk about justice moving swiftly ...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/07/31/karadzic.court/index.html
posted 10 weeks ago

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