Created Tue 22nd Jul 3:31pm PDT by 
hoernla
All questions » World » Europe » hoernla 
When will there be new elections in the German state of Hesse?
Current forecast: ...second half of 2009 (24% chance
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Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is ...second half of 2009 with a probability of 24% (unchanged in last 1 day)
The recent parliamentary elections in Hesse brought no clear majority. The 5 parties showed unable to form a viable coalition. For months, incumbent Ministerpräsident Roland Koch has ruled Hesse with a minority government. While the Hessian constitution allows this, it is a highly unusual situation in German politics.
Under normal circumstances, the next elections are scheduled for 2013. But any minor crisis could now result in an earlier call to the ballots.
Under normal circumstances, the next elections are scheduled for 2013. But any minor crisis could now result in an earlier call to the ballots.
Make your prediction!
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New elections still in 2008 |
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New election in the first six months of 2009 |
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...second half of 2009 |
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...2010 |
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...2012 |
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Who needs elections? This Landtag works until 2013 |
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Activity: H$678
Question suspends in 4 years
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source, e.g. www.spiegel.de
The date of the election counts, NOT their announcement.
Suspend date: Fri 2nd Nov 2012 12:59am PDT (4 years to go)
Initial likelihoods:
New elections still in 2008: 15%, New election in the first six months of 2009: 25%, ...second half of 2009: 25%, ...2010: 20%, ...2012: 10%, Who needs elections? This Landtag works until 2013: 5%
Action history:
Created Tue 22nd Jul 3:31pm PDT by hoernla
hoernla
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source, e.g. www.spiegel.de ... read all
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predicted Who needs elections? This Landtag works until 2013 (H$100 at 6%)Comments (0)
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