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How many world records will Michael Phelps break during the 2008 Olympics?

Settled as 7 or 8

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/sports/olympics/17phelpsweb.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

1 or 2
0%
3 or 4
0%
5 or 6
23%
7 or 8
74%
None
3%
Activity: H$73,292
Settled as 7 or 8 on Sat 16th Aug 8:26pm PDT

Suspend date: Sat 23rd Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 16th Aug 8:26pm PDT

Initial likelihoods: 1 or 2: 40%, 3 or 4: 20%, 5 or 6: 7%, 7 or 8: 3%, None: 30%

Action history:

Created Wed 23rd Jul 10:34am PDT by marksbren
Suspended Sat 16th Aug 8:05pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Manually suspended at 11:05 PM EDT -- before the beginning of the Men's 4x100 Medley Relay.
Settlement requested Sat 16th Aug 8:15pm PDT by jake: Settle as 7 or 8.

http://www.nbcolympics.com/swimming/resultsandschedules/rsc=SWM451100/index.html
Settlement requested Sat 16th Aug 8:24pm PDT by achew22: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/sports/olympics/17phelpsweb.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Phelps has won his 7th world record

From the article

"The United States won the 4x100-meter medley relay in 3:29.34, a world record, for Phelps’ eighth gold medal of the Beijing Games."
Clarified Sun 17th Aug 9:45am PDT by mrperfkt[Admin]: In respnose to flag - I count at least 7 or 8 here:

http://results.beijing2008.cn/WRM/ENG/REC/index.shtml

Suspend date: Sat 23rd Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 16th Aug 8:26pm PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (222)

222 predictions

13 weeks ago
newswrangler[Power User] predicted 7 or 8 (H$150 at 75%)
13 weeks ago
krumlov predicted 7 or 8 (H$100 at 74%)
13 weeks ago
achew22 predicted 5 or 6 (H$101 at 23%)
13 weeks ago
bobdevine predicted 7 or 8 (H$777 at 77%)
13 weeks ago
huxley predicted 7 or 8 (H$900 at 73%)
more

Comments (11)

  1 jake
Is this including relays also? I think it has to include that with the numbers in the settlement option but can I get some clarification first.
posted 14 weeks ago
Yes it includes any world records broken by relay teams that he's on.

Note, it wouldn't count twice if he broke the 100fly in the prelims and then broke his own record again in the finals. We will count only one WR per event.
posted 14 weeks ago
BTW, we're currently 3 for 3! Five more to go...
posted 14 weeks ago
  4 achew22
Phelps secured his 4th world record, 4 more to go! Great job Mr. Phelps!
posted 14 weeks ago
  5 pixelpaws
And, now, five world records and five gold medals later, this one is looking a lot more interesting than I expected.
posted 14 weeks ago
  6 robmar
wow- don't know how i screwed up this one so bad...
posted 14 weeks ago
  7 tisha[Admin]
Lost $50 by underestimating the ADD wonderboy and being in an unfortunate time zone!
posted 14 weeks ago
What if it turns out he was doping and loses the medals later?
posted 14 weeks ago
  9 achew22
@horatiomonty: he has been in a whole bunch of races thus far and you are tested every time you get a medal. I doubt he would pass 7 and fail his 8th test there is a NY times article on the doping that mentions how many times he has been tested.

From the article:
"High-profile athletes like Michael Phelps have been extensively tested, each time with both blood and urine tests. He had a test Aug. 2, when the United States swim team was in Singapore. The team arrived at the Olympic Village in Beijing on Aug. 4, and Phelps was tested again.

“We had been here an hour in the village when they went here and got him,” said Dr. Scott A. Rodeo, a team physician for USA Swimming who is an orthopedist at the Hospital for Special Surgery in New York. Since then, Phelps has been tested seven times, Rodeo said, including twice on Aug. 11."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/16/sports/olympics/16doping.html?ref=sports
posted 14 weeks ago
  10 pembeci
Phelps missed the record in his closest race (won by 1/100 seconds) yet. So now the question is reduced to: will the 4x100 medley relay team break the WR? If they do 7-8 wins, if not 5-6 wins.
posted 13 weeks ago
  11 achew22
Its over, 7-8 wins http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/sports/olympics/17phelpsweb.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

From the article,

"BEIJING — With the help of his teammates on Sunday, Michael Phelps surpassed Mark Spitz, 36 years after Spitz’s record haul of seven gold medals at the Munich Games. The United States won the 4x100-meter medley relay in 3:29.34, a world record, for Phelps’ eighth gold medal of the Beijing Games."
posted 13 weeks ago

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