Will the DOW crash by end of Oct 2008 (See below 9000 on the index)

Let's all bid yes on this, so when it happens we can say we told you so.

I started it. I'll be the first to say I told you so. :)

This ought to be an easy one. Trust me...the DOW WILL see below 9000 soon. Gov't efforts will fail. The collapse of the entire derivative and credit market has begun.

If guido is right, then the global economy will collapse....I'm gonna be optimistic!

lol its silly to think it will crash.

straight up silly.

Guido created the question and set a low percentage on the crash side to get in and make big hubdub bucks. Maybe Guido knows more inside information than he is letting on. :o)
See you below 9000.

Its..... OVER 9000!

10,000 coming up real soon. Only 1000 more points to go after that....

DOW may have record drop coming up. All you guys pouring money into the 'NO' side of this question are going to lose a LOT of hubdub bucks.

The Dow just closed today at 10,365, down 777. Another 777 drop would take it down to just under 9600. A third such drop would hit the target. But it doesn't have to go that far that fast to make this a winner. If it merely ambles down to 9600 in two weeks, the YES side will have odds of over 25% (?), making it a winning bet if you cash in at that point.

Or better yet, just make it a grand slam for 10:1 return on the hubdub bucks. I am a market trading consultant and saw this coming down the pipeline over 6 months ago. That's why I created the question. Of course Hubdub bucks are just for play...the real fun is being short the market with real futures contracts. My clients are happy no doubt.

By the way, if you think DOW 9000 is crazy, wait and see where the DOW is by next summer. 99.9% of people have no clue what a major unwinding this is going to be. Wall Street is in WAY over their heads and it's time to pay the piper for their raping of America.

If the Dow even just drops below 9000 for a moment, this will satisfy the requirements of this market...does not have to close at or below that level

The reason people kept betting NO (until after the close today) is that our training and psychology lead us to discount the possibility of "Black Swans". (See the best-seller of that title.) Here's a mind-opener. It's a quote from today's Mad Money by Jim Cramer:

"“Today’s 777-point drop was just the beginning,” Cramer said. ... Because the bailout plan didn’t pass, “the Great Depression II is back on the table.” In light of that possibility, a drop to 9000 is no longer "off the map." Once "the system" starts delaminating, which may begin tomorrow--or at least once that possibility is perceived--things can really come unglued and thousand-point drops occur. When they get going, no one wants to be a hero and stand in the path of the tsunami.

Blame the training and psychology on the deceptive practices of Wall Street and the government. I agree with your statement though. Most care don't know, don't want to know, or don't have the tools to know what is really going on. Market crashes are indeed a rare occurrence and not to be counted on. But they do happen and timing is key. Those few (like myself) that have the power to predict and see future market movement have a lock on timing and often price.

By the way, Cramer is the last person I would ever quote. One of the dumbest 'advisers' (ahem) on TV. You could make a killing by doing the opposite of what he says.

I'm not saying the Dow probably WILL go to 9000 by Oct. 31, just that it's more than 10% likely that it will. I think the most likely course of events is that some form of the TARP will be passed this week and that the Dow will bounce back a bit. By year-end I think 9500 would be about the best to be hoped for.

I quoted Cramer because he a mainstream, positively oriented stock-picker who was willing to say in stark terms what Paulson was hinting at with "dire."

Oct 7....it's possible you have only 8 days to vote 'yes'

ok... Why Oct 7?

guido, i think you must be a troll.

If the bailout bill is passed, we will not see 9000. Simple as that.

Bail out bill is irrelevant and will only delay the inevitable at best. The DOW is going to see a LOT lower than 9000 eventually. Trust me, I am no troll and I am well aware of the financial catastrophie that is looming. The point of no return has been passed.

@guido..does your ability to see the future of the market aplly to the short and long term?

Guido your doomsday theory is ridiculous. Its easy to just say that "if the bailout is passed then it will delay the inevitable at best" but you havent offered any evidence as to why that might be. Heres some reason why your wrong about that. This whole bad cycle weve gotten into is basically because of all those people who spent less and less because they couldnt sell there houses that they had bought for the sole purpose of flipping. So now all these people are being dragged down by house payments they cant afford. So picture this: What if the government bought up all those house payments that are dragging people down? Sales for all companys would go up, we would have a huge holiday season resulting in companys having a lot of extra cash to store away in case of another rainy day, and basically the economy would return back to normal. Thats all if the bailout passes and the government manages to buy up all the crappy loans the banks made. If they dont then the economy is going to be continued to be weighed down and we are going to be in a lot of trouble. Thats why you are wrong. if the bailout bill fails ill be putting a butload on yes. However it will pass and No shall prevail.

Deisel...yes, it applies to long and short term

Dragon...this is bigger than just a bunch of crappy housing loans. WAY bigger. The evidence I have is proprietary and I only provide to clients. I stand by what I see. $700 billion isn't going to rescue the economy even if they do pass it.

If the Dow closes below 10,000, it'll make headlines and a lot of ordinary people will start redeeming their mutual fund shares, etc. There's going to be pressure from hedge fund redemptions in the last quarter that will push the Dow close to 10,00 even if the bailout bill passes. It's unlikely we'll get to 9000 by the end of this year, let alone the end of October. But it's not such a longshot as the odds above (5%) imply. There may be unreported Big Bad News in the background that may emerge this month. The odds that it won't aren't 20-to1 against, but more like 5-to-1.

@guido..well how bout telling us all how the dow will close each dow? then i could make some easy money. :O) i'm not doubting your claim, just trying to take advantage of it.

LOL, you would like that, wouldn't you diesel? :) That wouldn't be fair to those that pay me the big bucks for guidance though.

The core of all the problems we are going through right now is all about those "crappy housing loans". If we can get that bill out and solve the root of almost every problem that wall street has had recently then the economy is going to be back to normal. Maybe even higher than normal.

Guido,
I am very impressed with your predictions. For many months now I have kept clinging to the money I had in the market because I thought "the downside from here is small, but the upside is great." Luckily, two weeks ago I came to earth, and went 100% cash. If the bailout passes and the market rallies, I plan to buy DXD, a bear market etf.
I think you are exactly right. This bill will not fix the huge problems in our economy, it will merely prevent the banks from failing. The consumer will still get squeezed. Credit will STILL tighten and house prices will keep dropping. Unemployment will remain on the rise, and many people will have problems paying mortgages, car loans, credit cards, etc.
I'm surprised that this board doesn't give you more credit for your predictions. I'm amazed you've been called a "troll." I was just able to grasp how big of a problem this was 2 weeks ago. You were out in front of it by 6 months. Good job.

Dragon...debt in general, whether it be housing or whatever is the root cause. You don't fix a cascading debt problem by going MORE into debt. If this bill passes, the FED will have to print a LOT of money, none of it which will go into the hands of the general public, all of it to benefit the profits by banks, big corps, etc and the guys at the top. The public is 100:1 against this for obvious reasons. In the meantime, the wash of $700 billion cash will make a loaf of bread $10 soon after while the minimum wage and the average salary of 95% of the remaining public, stays flat or falls. Inflation will be guaranteed to skyrocket. Look what happened in the next few years after global governments flooded economies with cash after 9-11. I pay a lot more for my bread, gas, insurance, etc as it is. Borrowing $700 billion might delay the cascade but will definitely make it worse over time. Governments around the world, and especially the US have already triggered the cascade this time and no amount of additional debt is going to save it.

You claim that debt is the root cause. However even in a worse case scenario where inflation rates rise debts will become easier to pay off due to the lower value of the dollar. This is the way the french government handles there problems and now they are doing better then before. Thats the way the spanish government handled there problems and now they are doing well. So in the worst possible case we still pull out of it in 5 years or so and do much better than we ever had before!

You're statement is correct to a degree, but not the case anymore. That was always the solution. Print money and cause inflation. As a result, the cost of everything around you rose but so did assets while debt remained a fixed variable. In a sense, your wealth grew in relation to debt and thus made debt easier to pay off. However, over the last 80-100 years, wages have hardly kept pace with inflation and in fact have fallen WAY behind while the top guys have outpaced inflation. An example, in 1970 the average CEO made 20 times what his lowest employee made. Fast forward to 2008 where the average CEO now makes 400x or more what his lowest employee. Wages have become concentrated and the ability to accumulate wealth is concentrated into the hands of a few. As a consequence, the majority of assets are in the hands of a few. Inflation no longer benefits the way it used to as it help only a few and hurts the remaining 95%. Because of the imbalance, the problem if creating debt to solve debt problems no longer works and the tide has shifted. And about the lower value of the dollar....sure let's print massive amounts of money. Ask the Zimbabweans what they think of that and the collapsed value of their currency and 1 million% inflation rate.

You haven't seen a worst case scenario. Ever wonder what happens when a major government like the US defaults on their debt?

The only times a ceo make 400X as much as there lowest employee is when the company is expanding rapidly and feel they need to make sure thigns go well. Most companys that revolved around rapid growth are paying for it now. US wont default on there debt. And even if they did, you want to know what happens? Nothing. These banks dont have the power to do anything against the US. We have military, we have nuclear weapons, and banks have zilch. Any bank that tries to repossess something from the US is as idiotic as they are foolish. Zimbabwe is a extreme case. If inflation did get out of control here then we would be able to cap it and control it. The Zimbabwe government didn't have the power to do that.

if the US defaults on their debut katie bar the door. world world 3 is gonna start. people think ron paul is a goofball. i don't agree with his foreign policy, but his economic policy is right on imho.

He has a economic policy? How cute. Its funny when people with little power have opinions.

Dragon, that's joke to think that only expanding companies give CEO's 400x pay. Follow all the examples below just as a taste...


• Lehman Brothers Chairman and CEO Richard Fuld Jr. made $34 million in 2007. Lehman (OTC:LEHMQ) filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection earlier this month. Fuld also sold nearly a half-billion –$490 million – from selling LEH stock;

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS)paid its Chairman and CEO Lloyd Blankfein $70 million last year. Co-Chief Operating Officers Gary Cohn and Jon Winkereid were paid $72.5 million and $71 million, respectively.

• Bears Sterns (BSC JPM)former chairman Jimmy Cayne, rescued by a $29 billion Fed shotgun wedding to JPM, received $60 million when he was replaced;

• American International Group (AIG) chief executive Martin Sullivan got a $14 million compensation package in 2007. He was ousted in June. The insurance giant (NYSE:AIG) is on the receiving end of an $85 billion federal bailout. Robert Willumstad was handed $7 million for his three months at the helm. (Edward Liddy took over as AIG’s chief executive earlier this month).

• Morgan Stanley (MS) Chairman John Mack earned $1.6 million + stock. Chief Financial Officer Colin Kelleher got a $21 million paycheck in 2007. Morgan Stanley also received an expedited approval to become a banking holding company in 48 hours -- that's record time.

• Countrywide Financial's (CWF BAC) founder & CEO Angelo Mozilo, which has been at the forefront of the subprime fiasco, cashed in $122 million in stock options in 2007; His total take is estimated at over $400 million dollars;

• Stanley Neal, who steered Merrill Lynch (NYSE:MER) into financial collapse before being taken over by Bank of America, was given a package of $160 million when he left his post last year; That package makes current CEO John Thain was paid $17 million in salary, bonuses and stock options in 2007 look like a bargain.

• Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) is acquiring Merrill. BofA CEO Kenneth Davis brought home $25 million in 2007.

• JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Chairman and CEO James Dimon earned $28 million in 2007. Chase acquired troubled investment house Bear Stearns earlier this year with the federal reserve backstopping $29 billion in Bear assets to help get the deal done.

• Fannie Mae (FNM) CEO Daniel Mudd received $11.6 million in 2007. His counterpart at Freddie Mac (FRE) Richard Syron, brought in $18 million. Federal government is taking over the mortgage backers with Herbert Allison to serve as Fannie CEO and David Moffett the new CEO at Freddie.

• Wachovia Corp. (WB) Chairman and CEO G. Kennedy Thompson received $21 million in 2007. He was succeeded by Robert Steel as CEO in July. Steel is slated to get a $1 million salary with an opportunity for a $12 million bonus, according to CEO Watch. Wachovia (NYSE:WB) is one of the banks that could be sold in the midst of the financial crisis.

• Seattle-based Washington Mutual (WM) will pay its new CEO Alan Fishman a salary and incentive package worth more than $20 million through 2009 for taking the helm of the battered bank, according to the Puget Sound Business Journal.

It's also fooloish to think the US won't ever default on a debt. It's not an ironclad country where nothing could ever go wrong aand we are about to see that. You just can't keep diggin a hole and expect to keep climbing out. Eventually the hole will cave in on you.
Zimbabwe is an extreme case but I don't think anyone in this country could afford 100% inflation, let alone 1 million%.

Time is ticking....Oct 7.

Guido,
You still think the market will take a hit on or by Oct 7 if this bail out goes through?

It's a date of significance give or take. Either the market doesn't like what happens tomorrow in the House and plunges into that time period, or we get a brief rally into that period and the cards start to collapse from that period. Doesn't matter either way. We will know where we are by the end of Oct.

straat
Net worth: H$998
Predictions made: 2

from United States. Member since Yesterday


lol. guido. way to make multiple accounts to boost ur fan base.

troll.

And you robamichael, are clueless, my friend. I don't have time to play games like that. Throw your false and meaningless accusations elsewhere.

See you next week.

I exist bud, my last name is Straatmann...hence straat.

Here's a link to a site where lots of amateurs, and a few pros, make moderated posts about stocks that I've found educational and provocative:
http://seekingalpha.com/articles
Some of them explain the dire straits we're in. (Another domino fell today--along with some of the "unreported Big Bad News" I predicted, such as rising unemployment and us being in a recession, semi-officially. When the ordinary on-the-fence investor reads that tomorrow, or next week, he'll redeem some of his investment, and the next domino will fall, etc. We could be below 10,000 next week.)
Another site that links to some good pro articles, especially from "Minyanville" (love that bear), is here:
http://www.marketwatch.com/

@roba - Indeed, completely distinct users. In the future, if you suspect someone of cheating, please flag it to an admin and they can check out the activity discreetly.

@guido - You don't tell me what I want to hear, but thanks for your insight. I still wonder why the magic Oct 7 date though? (Just days before my birthday.. is that when everyone needs to have the present in the mail to be sure I get it??) The list of executive salaries is just sickening though. I hope the golden parachute clause in the bailout package helps with that, but I'm getting too jaded to believe that it will make a difference.

@jenni
Just to clarify, he could flag his concerns on the question that he would have otherwise commented on, correct? (I didn't want anyone wondering where to report SUSPECTED abuse unrelated to questions....) Perhaps you can clarify this....

Here's a comment from Felix Salmon in his post "The Downside" on the Seeking Alpha site:
<This crisis has clearly moved far past the point at which monetary policy alone can turn things around. The only real question is whether monetary policy and fiscal policy and TARP and regulatory reform and closer cooperation between global authorities can turn things around. Right now, I'd put that at about p=0.4.... The global financial system is so interlinked, and so susceptible to vicious cycles of mistrust and deleveraging, that the worst-case scenarios really are gruesome beyond imagining.

So much for passing the bailout bill. I told you it was irrelevant.

Oct 7.....

you know what.... my bad. I shouldnt be tossing accusations like that around. sry guido.

but to be clear, I think its a big mistake that you think this crisis is even bigger than it is. A lot of what is happening is because of fear, and going around spreading the fear does not help quell the fluctuations. This financial meltdown isn't something people can't understand, dumping all of your assets and stocks is not what people need to do right now.

Every crisis is resolved and the only way to save your money is to endure the dips.

rob...come back when you're not fresh out of high school and have at least 10-15 years of inside market experience. You have a lot to learn. No offense on that, seriously. I just don't think you understand.

The Dow closed today at 10,325. There are four weeks to go in October. 1325 / 4 = 333 points per week. That's doable.

Not only doable ...

Probable. :(

This market has almost a million Hubbucks wagered on it.

(disclaimer: I have hubbucks on Yes)

Hi cognos. I've also bet Yes, to the tune of $15,000 (in many small bets of 500 & 1000). At 6%, it's a good bet--but I don't think it's probable. I expect to lose my money. But I'd do it again, because, over the long run, I'd come out ahead making bets like this.

@rogerkni
yeah. sometimes a whole bunch of 'long-shots' can fill a bucket.

but, sometimes it takes a long time.

sounds like you'll be hub-rich if this turns out to be true. I remember all too vividly a similar (though not as dramatic) drop during the eighties. thought it would never end. then, the DOW comes back, stronger than ever, seeking higher volumes and new records. more millionaires, more growth. more, more, more ...

until...

the market corrects itself again.

Oct 7....2 days and counting.

10,000 probably breaks Monday.

A 3% decline would do it, and fulfill the 333-point quota for the week. I'm now in to the tune of nearly $20,000. Some Hubdub millionaire's been dueling with me for a month or so on this, so he stands to lose $300,000 or so.

Here's a scary story--one that could start a run for the exits: "Bank of America to Lehman: Where's Our Money?"
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=BWK&date=20081003&id=9226267

PS: Guido--do you have any comment on the story above?

Maybe the Dow will hit 9000 by the end of this week. Or this day.

@roger - actually it looks like you've been dueling with a couple of hub-millionaires... If it really happens, we may see some drastic changes to our business leaderboard. For the sake of our economy though, I'll continue to hope that your bet never pays out.

Roger...just another example of the kind of greed that is rampant on Wall Street. It's all about Money for the top guys. The following story sums it up...

A big broker was courting a prospective investor one day and as they were looking out over the harbour, the broker said, "Look, we do an excellent job, our form is top notch. Do you see all those yachts on the harbour? Those are our brokers out there so that should give you an idea of how well we do." The prospective investor then said..."yes, but where are the client's yachts then?"

Those guys don't give a flip about you and unfortunately, the FED, treasury and Bush admin are all in bed together, robbing America. They have gone too far though.

Concerning most banks and investment brokers, a lot of them don't have much money left. The ones that went bust already got wiped out. Wall Street is leveraged to the tune of 10:1 or more....meaning for every real dollar they have in assets, they have at least $10 worth of investments and that's probably light. Some are leverage as much as 30:1 - 50:1. Basically, a 5% move against them and they get crushed. This is what is happening now and the tide is now on deleveraging which means having to sell down as much as possible. It's a vicious cycle though that will feed on itself and the result will be debt implosion. America will change forever in the coming years as will likely, the rest of the world.

And yes, DOW 9000 is possible this week.

Ooops...there goes 10,000 and not even an hour into the day. 9000 coming up next.

Post a new question....how many hub dub millionaires will go broke by betting 'no' on my question?

Jenniandboys: I'm not aiming to win this bet, just to be able to cash out at better odds than I entered on. I'm not hoping for the outcome I'm betting on--that's an attitude that will bring a bettor to grief. (For instance, I've been betting persistently for months on Hillary Clinton, because I think there's more than a gnat's eyelash chance she'll become the Dem. nominee at the last moment.)

Guido: It seems to me that the Yes bettors don't understand how leveraging can be potentially catastrophic, once a positive feedback cycle gets going. It's a very risky situation.

Here's a cartoon I saw on Seeking Alpha that will amuse you: A very scruffy homeless guy with full beard and wild hair is standing against a building wearing a sign saying "Work for Food." A chipper, prosperous-looking, smiling guy holding a cell phone to his ear leans back and says to him over his shoulder, "Cheer up, my broker says things are looking up." The homeless guy, whose hand is also held against his ear, says, "I AM your broker."

9900....900 to go.

9800....800 to go. 9000 is a given. My research told me this was coming (I am a market trading consultant) last year and a few months ago it was solid, hence the question.

No betters should be losing a LOT of hubdub bucks soon.

9775, down 550. Today's first 75 minutes of trading have taken us 40% of the way to 9000 from Friday's close. Bear market panics lead to steep declines.

Here's a cheery note, from the thread "Lehman's Lies" on Seeking Alpha at http://seekingalpha.com/article/98647-lehman-s-lies :
"And it's not nearly over yet. The European shoe is only beginning to drop: Banks there are much more leveraged than banks in the US, and a European credit crunch is therefore even more devastating than a US credit crunch. Add in the feedback mechanisms from Europe back into the US, and things are likely to get much worse before they get any better.

Oh, and did I mention? TED's at 391bp -- another new record. I have a feeling this is going to be a long week."

Thanks to all the friend invites. No offense to anyone but I am turning them all down. Just not interested. You can e-mail me if you're interested in discussing market issues.

Headline on Marketwatch:
"European stocks end worst one-day decline ever, down nearly 8%."

9700...700 more to go.

Halfway home. (Down 687, which is more than the 666 points needed to take us halfway to our target.)

9600....600 more to go. Still an hour and a half to go and the last hour of redemptions has not hit yet. Margin calls come tomorrow. Oh ye of little faith. I told you all it was coming. Hubdub bucks are nothing....being short 100 S&P contracts from 1275 is better. :)

The low so far is ...

9,572.08

Now we have ...

9,559.33

A new record for 'one day' down ...

-784.

9550. Hey, guido, you're preaching to the choir! :)

Going down pretty fast..

9500 breaks....500 to go. I don't know how many times I need to say it....9000 is coming.

So...anyone for 9000 by Friday? Maybe even tomorrow?

Hey guido,

i was first to comment and said: "Let's all bid yes on this, so when it happens we can say we told you so. " So, I may have helped your insightful efforts a little, sadly, I guess.
good "luck" in this..

Half this drop was a nervous reaction to the Morgan Stanley deal with Mitsuibishi (sp?) not going through. I think there will be a bounce back to the end of the week by maybe 200 points. But the trend is down for sure--there are a lot of motivated sellers out there.

Here's a link to a post by Felix Salmon that quotes one of the prophets of the collapse, Noriel Roubini, gloating now:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/98937-roubini-was-right

after 1600 point loss in just 3 days (AFTER the bailout package) there is no dought that its going below 9000, its already 9500.

Tokyo down 10% (so far) tonight. Nasdaq futures -30.

Banks being bought up throughout europe. Iceland's banking system collapses. The Fed cut rates to 1.5% overnight in an 'emergency' meeting.

When will this all end? Surely not before we get below 9,000.

9250 this morning before the bounce (it too will fail)....250 more to go. Rate cuts will do nothing. At this point, banks either don't have the money to lend, won't lend it, or both. Fund redemptions are also high and will continue as this feeds on itself. The no shorting rule also eliminates the potential for short covering to be involved in rallies.

9000 is coming.

Next stop 8000? Here's the link to the place where you can bet on that:
http://www.hubdub.com/m18439/Will_the_stock_market_DJIA_fall_20_percent

guido: You haven't seen a worst case scenario. Ever wonder what happens when a major government like the US defaults on their debt?

I've wondered about that. I usually end up figuring that it will end in war.

@ chuck
which administration is going to start the war? the current one or the next one?

@meanderingsearcher

Who knows, Maybe it won't be the U.S.

CNN Money today:
One market strategist said the selloff is a bad sign because the Fed and other central banks are running out of ways to effectively deal with the credit crisis. "This better work. This is the last chance," said Jeffrey Saut, chief market strategist with Raymond James Financial.

So... this means the bailout failed, right?

it means we threw good money after bad, and now the good money ain't so good any more.

guido,

i was wrong.

@robamichael - I was wrong, too.

Yes, the bailout failed..well, it really hasn't had time to work but it will fail anyway. Getting your way out of a debt crisis by adding more debt will only work for so long. Eventually the whole system will implode on itself and we have reached that point. For decades, the FED has always increased debt and money flow to get out of situations. The net result is that it increases inflation which means a rise in assets while debt stays fixed and thus making it easier to pay off debt. Problem is, we never paid it off and like a crack whore on drugs, just kept getting more and more into the debt drug. Bailout money is useless at this point and there isn't enough bailout money in the world to fix this problem when assets aren't backed by anything real. The dollar went off the gold standard many moons ago and is nothing but a promissory note. Assets are also leveraged anywhere from 10:1 to as much as 50:1 by various investment instruments. It doesn't take much to wipe out a capital base from here and that is what you are witnessing as funds of all sorts for forced to unwind.

History will be in the making and according to my research, we are going to witness something on a scale no one has ever seen. We'll get out of it eventually, but expect some very hard times and expect things to be a lot different going forward. The market has a destiny to fulfill though and few will like it. (Yes, the markets ARE predictable).

Robamichael...no hard feelings taken and none given I hope. Aside from the above, for decades the public has been trained pavlovian style that the markets will always recover. That this is a pullback and the governments will save the day. In the past yes, but not this time. Most people (much like yourself probably) don't want to see the bad...likely because it is hard to imagine that it could happen and because most don't want it to happen. Few believed what I said, but I wasn't surprised. I expected it to be that way.

I have spent over 15 years in research and development of market analysis and have discovered things that probably no one else knows except for those willing to be my students. The market movement is based on a series of nested patterns and is highly predictable....if you know what to look for.

To close, here's a tip for the future....the DOW will see MUCH lower levels unimagined by anyone in the coming years, even at this point. DOW 9000 was an easy one. DOW 5000 (not this year) will be harder to swallow and that STILL probably won't finish it.

Guido, thanks for the insight. Just curious, what area are you from?

9200 gone....less than 200 to go.

9100....100 more to go.

What was the DOW at when you made this question?

It was created on the 25th of July, so it was around the 11000 to 11500 range at that time.

Today could be the day

I think the DOW was around 11,300 at the time the question was made, just under 3 months ago. If anyone wants to e-mail me, I can send forecast pics I made last year to clients showing everything. The forecast is VERY accurate.

blackbox.consulting@yahoo.com

So far today, the DOW's "Low" is:

9,045.76

Holy jolly that is so close...

there it was

It has happened

Ka Ching!!! Mr. HubDub, I would like to cash in my chips now. :)

Question can be settled as Yes.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?Symbol=%24INDU&IntraDay=1

I've suspended and flagged the market.

Told ya....


If anyone is interested in my investment services for real, feel free to e-mail me. Time to get back to work.

Back to work?!?!--Never!!! Time to vote on whether the Dow will crack 8000 by year-end. I'll set up the question now. (The current question isn't formulated well enough to draw heavy betting, the way this one was, because it puts no short-term time-limit, but merely asks if the Dow will EVER (or anyway in 2009) get below 8000. Ho hum..)

Good job Guido! I came into this late yesterday as it is my habit to haunt the "closing soon" items. Enjoyed reading the comments posted over the past weeks - I was shocked as I read along and realized how long ago this question was posted!

Needless to say, I'm also quite a bit up in Hubdub cash now, too!

TYVM!

That was impressive to watch, guido.

Roger, can you post a link here if you set that up?

do your clients call you 'Guido' ?

his clients call him "Mr. Guido".

zeal...no. Guido for HubDub is just for fun every now and then as I do not give out personal info in public. My pic might be close though! :) All work and no play makes a dull man.

Excellent thread! Thanks all!

"Told you so"

Guido turns out you were right and i was wrong. Id apologize but fortunetly i was right on something that was much more important. You know what? My portfolio was way up in a down market. Even when i lose i still win.

roger...you better get your 8000 question up fast because it may break Friday at this rate. DOW futs are plummeting. Down to 8300's now.

8579 is where it closed at.

CONGRADULATIONS GUIDO. you not only won this question, but i imagine you'll get some new clients.

Ha ha maybe. However i think that the only reason he was right was sheer luck. He was guessing based on a worst possible scenario. Most of the time that kind of conspiratist attitude isnt correct but occasionally out of sheer coincidence (no relation to talent) they get one right.

It wasn't luck. Your very misguided to believe it was coincidence

Dragon....send me an e-mail and I will send you forecasts I made LAST year as well as this year, well ahead of the actual moves. I predicted the precise structure of the rally from early 2007 into the 1600 peak and also the decline to follow from that peak into S&P 800's by Oct-Nov 2008. You can probably check the file date on these to see when they were made as proof. There is no sheer luck here.